Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#173
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.0#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 11.4% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 14.1
.500 or above 60.4% 70.3% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 74.0% 56.9%
Conference Champion 10.5% 12.9% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.6% 4.2%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round9.0% 11.0% 5.4%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 83-79 65%    
  Nov 12, 2023 181   @ Montana L 70-72 40%    
  Nov 14, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 26, 2023 252   Sacramento St. W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 30, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 06, 2023 79   @ Nevada L 67-77 20%    
  Dec 09, 2023 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 83-78 69%    
  Dec 16, 2023 188   @ Pacific L 77-79 43%    
  Dec 19, 2023 181   Montana W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 28, 2023 150   UC Santa Barbara W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 30, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 73-59 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 06, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 11, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 13, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 18, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 01, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 03, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 70-62 74%    
  Feb 08, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 11, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 15, 2024 141   Long Beach St. W 83-82 54%    
  Feb 17, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 22, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 29, 2024 142   Hawaii W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 07, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 09, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 80-85 35%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.8 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.9 7.4 9.0 10.2 10.9 10.6 9.9 8.7 6.8 5.0 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 97.7% 1.8    1.7 0.2 0.0
17-3 81.6% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
16-4 55.3% 2.8    1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.9% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 6.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 90.2% 75.5% 14.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0%
19-1 0.8% 62.3% 46.3% 16.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 29.8%
18-2 1.9% 44.1% 40.0% 4.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.8%
17-3 3.1% 33.5% 32.4% 1.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 1.6%
16-4 5.0% 27.0% 26.9% 0.2% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.6 0.2%
15-5 6.8% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.0%
14-6 8.7% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.5
13-7 9.9% 10.5% 10.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.9
12-8 10.6% 6.9% 6.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.9
11-9 10.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.3
10-10 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.0
9-11 9.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.8
8-12 7.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
7-13 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.8
6-14 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.4% 9.2% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.0 90.6 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 4.0 64.0 32.0