Preseason Rankings
California Baptist
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.2#324
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.8% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 54.7% 62.4% 33.8%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 56.8% 37.9%
Conference Champion 7.0% 8.4% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 7.4% 14.4%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round6.4% 7.6% 3.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 70-63 73%    
  Nov 17, 2023 211   Portland St. W 74-70 66%    
  Nov 18, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 72-63 78%    
  Nov 19, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 67-54 88%    
  Nov 29, 2023 226   @ Southern Utah L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 06, 2023 210   Utah Tech W 52-48 65%    
  Dec 12, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 59-74 9%    
  Dec 16, 2023 202   @ UC Riverside L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 19, 2023 172   Western Kentucky W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 27, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 71-59 84%    
  Dec 30, 2023 167   @ New Mexico St. L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 04, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 06, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 11, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 13, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 25, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 03, 2024 126   Seattle L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 08, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 49-51 45%    
  Feb 15, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 22, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 29, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 02, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-69 74%    
  Mar 07, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 64-66 42%    
  Mar 08, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 64-67 40%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.9 1.2 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.0 8.4 9.7 10.2 10.1 9.7 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.8% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 87.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 64.5% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1
15-5 34.0% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 87.0% 61.5% 25.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.1%
19-1 0.3% 63.8% 44.7% 19.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 34.5%
18-2 0.9% 48.3% 41.6% 6.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.4%
17-3 1.6% 32.4% 30.7% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.3%
16-4 2.9% 26.8% 26.4% 0.3% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.4%
15-5 4.3% 19.6% 19.5% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.4 0.1%
14-6 5.8% 14.1% 14.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.0
13-7 7.4% 11.5% 11.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6
12-8 8.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.0
11-9 9.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.2
10-10 10.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.7
9-11 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.9
8-12 9.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.6
7-13 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-14 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.9
5-15 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-16 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-17 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.7% 6.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 93.3 0.2%