Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#39
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#150
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.6% 2.8% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 6.6% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 17.0% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 27.1% 29.0% 10.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.1% 55.6% 31.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.2% 52.7% 28.9%
Average Seed 6.4 6.3 7.5
.500 or above 75.6% 78.6% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 58.8% 38.5%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 4.9% 11.6%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 4.3%
First Round50.8% 53.3% 29.3%
Second Round33.1% 34.9% 17.2%
Sweet Sixteen15.6% 16.6% 7.0%
Elite Eight7.0% 7.5% 2.7%
Final Four3.1% 3.3% 1.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 89.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 34 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 159   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-65 90%    
  Nov 12, 2023 300   Army W 83-61 98%    
  Nov 16, 2023 131   Wright St. W 83-71 85%    
  Nov 19, 2023 6   Connecticut L 68-74 30%    
  Nov 26, 2023 219   Harvard W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 01, 2023 29   Maryland W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 05, 2023 48   @ Michigan L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 09, 2023 23   Auburn L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 16, 2023 1   Kansas L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 19, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 74-57 93%    
  Dec 21, 2023 223   North Alabama W 82-65 93%    
  Dec 29, 2023 204   Kennesaw St. W 80-64 91%    
  Jan 03, 2024 67   @ Nebraska W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 06, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 09, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 12, 2024 113   Minnesota W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 16, 2024 2   Purdue L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 19, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 30, 2024 42   Iowa W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 03, 2024 76   Penn St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 06, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 10, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 18, 2024 47   Northwestern W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 67   Nebraska W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 24, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 27, 2024 28   Wisconsin W 66-64 55%    
  Mar 03, 2024 29   @ Maryland L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 06, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 10, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 67-70 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.8 7.4 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.3 8.5 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 92.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 77.5% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 49.6% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.5% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.8% 100.0% 12.2% 87.7% 3.5 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.7% 99.7% 10.8% 89.0% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 8.5% 97.5% 8.0% 89.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.3%
12-8 9.3% 92.2% 6.9% 85.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 91.6%
11-9 10.5% 79.5% 4.4% 75.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 78.5%
10-10 10.4% 57.6% 4.5% 53.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 55.6%
9-11 10.3% 27.3% 3.6% 23.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 24.6%
8-12 9.4% 7.5% 2.4% 5.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 5.3%
7-13 7.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2 0.5%
6-14 5.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0%
5-15 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
4-16 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.9
3-17 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 53.1% 5.7% 47.4% 6.4 2.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 46.9 50.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7