Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#159
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.1#230
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 28.1% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 12.4 13.6
.500 or above 61.6% 86.1% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 91.4% 79.6%
Conference Champion 22.4% 35.8% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four1.7% 1.5% 1.7%
First Round16.3% 27.2% 15.1%
Second Round2.5% 5.7% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 10.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 49 - 314 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 39   @ Indiana L 65-78 10%    
  Nov 13, 2023 69   @ Pittsburgh L 66-76 17%    
  Nov 17, 2023 143   Missouri St. L 64-65 46%    
  Nov 25, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington W 69-67 56%    
  Nov 29, 2023 196   @ Florida International L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 03, 2023 58   @ Cincinnati L 66-78 16%    
  Dec 09, 2023 113   @ Minnesota L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 16, 2023 237   @ Mercer W 68-66 56%    
  Dec 19, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 30, 2023 25   Florida Atlantic L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 04, 2024 246   Jacksonville W 66-58 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 280   North Florida W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 10, 2024 224   @ Queens W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 12, 2024 204   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 207   Stetson W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 25, 2024 184   Lipscomb W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 236   Austin Peay W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 01, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 03, 2024 223   @ North Alabama W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 07, 2024 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 215   Bellarmine W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 207   @ Stetson L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 22, 2024 204   Kennesaw St. W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 224   Queens W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 28, 2024 280   @ North Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 01, 2024 246   @ Jacksonville W 63-61 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.2 6.2 3.8 1.2 22.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.6 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.1 2.0 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.8 13.0 12.2 9.6 7.0 3.9 1.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 98.4% 3.8    3.5 0.3
14-2 88.7% 6.2    4.9 1.2 0.1
13-3 64.5% 6.2    3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-4 31.9% 3.9    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 8.6% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 14.2 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 67.5% 62.3% 5.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14.0%
15-1 3.9% 56.7% 53.7% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 6.4%
14-2 7.0% 42.6% 41.9% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 4.0 1.1%
13-3 9.6% 30.6% 30.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.7 0.0%
12-4 12.2% 22.1% 22.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 9.5
11-5 13.0% 16.6% 16.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 10.8
10-6 12.8% 12.1% 12.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 11.2
9-7 11.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.9
8-8 9.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.1
7-9 7.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.0
6-10 5.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-11 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-12 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-13 1.0% 1.0
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.0% 16.8% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.3 83.0 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%