Preseason Rankings
North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#223
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#119
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 6.9% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 45.7% 49.9% 22.5%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 58.7% 40.5%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.7% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 6.6% 12.8%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round5.9% 6.5% 2.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 338   Alabama A&M W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 14, 2023 37   @ Mississippi St. L 58-75 5%    
  Nov 18, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 72-69 61%    
  Nov 22, 2023 282   @ Tennessee Martin W 80-79 52%    
  Nov 26, 2023 205   @ Western Carolina L 72-76 35%    
  Nov 30, 2023 289   Tennessee Tech W 76-69 72%    
  Dec 02, 2023 32   @ Kansas St. L 67-85 6%    
  Dec 10, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 13, 2023 328   @ Charleston Southern W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 289   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 21, 2023 39   @ Indiana L 65-82 7%    
  Jan 01, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 64-81 8%    
  Jan 06, 2024 336   Central Arkansas W 86-75 81%    
  Jan 11, 2024 215   Bellarmine W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 134   Eastern Kentucky L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 18, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 24, 2024 204   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 224   Queens W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 01, 2024 207   Stetson W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 03, 2024 159   Florida Gulf Coast L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 08, 2024 280   @ North Florida W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 10, 2024 246   @ Jacksonville L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 15, 2024 184   Lipscomb W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 236   Austin Peay W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 22, 2024 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 24, 2024 215   @ Bellarmine L 66-70 38%    
  Mar 01, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas W 83-78 65%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 7.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.0 1.3 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.0 2.1 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.8 3.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.9 1.0 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.5 10.6 11.8 12.5 11.9 10.1 8.6 5.9 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 99.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-2 89.6% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
13-3 65.2% 2.6    1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-4 33.2% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 7.7% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 64.6% 59.4% 5.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.8%
15-1 0.8% 46.7% 44.4% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.2%
14-2 1.9% 29.1% 29.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
13-3 3.9% 22.9% 22.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0
12-4 5.9% 17.1% 17.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.9
11-5 8.6% 11.1% 11.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.7
10-6 10.1% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.2
9-7 11.9% 4.9% 4.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.4
8-8 12.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.1
7-9 11.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.5
6-10 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
5-11 8.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.5
4-12 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-13 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
1-15 0.8% 0.8
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 6.3% 6.2% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%