Preseason Rankings
Ivy League
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
68 Yale 53.6%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 11 - 3 +7.9      +3.3 80 +4.6 57 65.9 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Princeton 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 9 - 5 +2.3      +1.9 118 +0.4 160 67.7 184 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Cornell 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 6 +0.7      +3.9 70 -3.1 270 76.0 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Brown 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 7 - 7 -0.7      -2.1 247 +1.4 130 72.2 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Penn 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 7 - 7 -1.8      +0.5 156 -2.3 242 67.5 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Harvard 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 6 - 8 -2.7      -3.6 287 +1.0 140 65.6 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 Dartmouth 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 5 - 9 -4.3      -2.7 260 -1.6 223 70.8 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
303 Columbia 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 4 - 10 -7.6      -3.6 286 -4.0 297 73.2 52 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 1.7 61.3 20.0 9.5 4.8 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2
Princeton 3.2 20.3 24.7 18.4 13.7 10.0 6.7 4.3 1.9
Cornell 3.7 13.6 19.3 18.4 15.9 12.9 9.7 6.6 3.6
Brown 4.2 9.0 14.8 16.5 16.8 15.2 12.5 9.8 5.4
Penn 4.5 6.9 11.9 15.0 15.7 16.0 15.1 12.0 7.6
Harvard 4.8 5.1 9.9 12.9 15.1 16.2 15.9 14.7 10.2
Dartmouth 5.4 2.9 6.7 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.3 19.3 16.2
Columbia 6.4 0.9 2.6 4.6 7.1 10.9 15.4 23.3 35.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 11 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.8 13.7 17.6 19.0 16.7 9.6
Princeton 9 - 5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.3 8.9 11.8 13.6 14.8 13.9 11.6 7.4 3.8 1.1
Cornell 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.2 8.8 11.3 13.8 14.1 13.3 11.0 8.0 5.0 2.1 0.6
Brown 7 - 7 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.3 11.1 13.6 14.1 13.4 11.5 8.5 5.6 2.8 1.2 0.3
Penn 7 - 7 0.4 1.8 4.0 7.0 9.9 13.0 14.2 13.8 12.0 9.8 6.8 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2
Harvard 6 - 8 0.7 2.5 5.5 8.5 11.8 13.6 14.4 13.2 11.0 8.4 5.3 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
Dartmouth 5 - 9 1.4 4.7 8.4 12.0 13.8 14.7 13.3 11.1 8.6 5.9 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Columbia 4 - 10 5.2 11.2 15.5 16.6 15.6 12.7 9.1 6.3 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 61.3% 48.7 10.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Princeton 20.3% 12.8 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cornell 13.6% 7.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Brown 9.0% 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Penn 6.9% 3.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Harvard 5.1% 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Columbia 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 53.6% 50.9% 2.7% 12   0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 3.3 11.8 15.3 8.6 3.4 1.5 0.8 46.4 5.6%
Princeton 16.6% 15.9% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.1 4.2 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.2 83.4 0.8%
Cornell 11.6% 11.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 88.4 0.3%
Brown 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 92.0 0.1%
Penn 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 94.0 0.1%
Harvard 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 95.3 0.1%
Dartmouth 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 97.4 0.0%
Columbia 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 53.6% 1.7% 52.9% 18.4% 6.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Princeton 16.6% 1.2% 16.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 11.6% 1.0% 11.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 8.0% 1.0% 7.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 6.0% 0.9% 5.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 4.7% 0.8% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 2.6% 0.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 94.7 3.0 0.0
2nd Round 25.3% 0.3 74.7 24.9 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.4 0.0
Elite Eight 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2