IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.7	#248
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#282
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#241

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.0	#265

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	34.2%	38.0%	23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.3	15.7

.500 or above	62.5%	70.0%	41.9%
.500 or above in Conference	86.7%	89.6%	78.9%
Conference Champion	42.4%	46.1%	32.2%
Last Place in Conference	2.3%	1.5%	4.6%

First Four	13.0%	13.0%	13.0%
First Round	27.2%	31.0%	16.7%
Second Round	1.0%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 5	13 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2023	312	Hampton	W	75-68	73%
Nov 17, 2023	162	Fordham	L	67-72	31%
Nov 25, 2023	95	@ Wichita St.	L	61-74	13%
Nov 28, 2023	302	William & Mary	W	70-64	70%
Dec 01, 2023	82	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	61-75	11%
Dec 09, 2023	209	@ Illinois St.	L	64-70	31%
Dec 13, 2023	255	@ Stony Brook	L	64-67	41%
Dec 16, 2023	112	@ Hofstra	L	65-76	16%
Dec 20, 2023	155	@ UTEP	L	62-71	23%
Jan 02, 2024	7	@ Tennessee	L	53-77	2%
Jan 06, 2024	345	@ South Carolina St.	W	78-74	64%
Jan 08, 2024	306	@ NC Central	W	69-68	50%
Jan 20, 2024	247	@ Howard	L	71-74	40%
Jan 27, 2024	357	Coppin St.	W	80-68	85%
Jan 29, 2024	333	Morgan St.	W	77-68	77%
Feb 03, 2024	355	Delaware St.	W	74-62	83%
Feb 05, 2024	342	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	69-65	63%
Feb 17, 2024	345	South Carolina St.	W	81-71	80%
Feb 19, 2024	306	NC Central	W	71-65	69%
Feb 24, 2024	357	@ Coppin St.	W	77-71	69%
Feb 26, 2024	333	@ Morgan St.	W	74-71	59%
Mar 02, 2024	355	@ Delaware St.	W	71-65	68%
Mar 04, 2024	342	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	72-62	79%
Mar 07, 2024	247	Howard	W	74-71	59%
Projected Record						13 - 11	9 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.2	1.8	6.3	11.4	11.9	7.9	3.1		42.4	1st
2nd								0.1	2.2	7.2	7.6	3.2	0.4				20.8	2nd
3rd							0.1	2.0	6.1	4.6	1.0	0.0					13.9	3rd
4th						0.1	1.4	4.7	2.6	0.4							9.2	4th
5th					0.1	1.0	3.0	1.8	0.1								6.0	5th
6th				0.1	0.7	2.1	1.1	0.1									4.1	6th
7th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.1										2.4	7th
8th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0											1.2	8th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.0	3.9	5.7	8.8	11.3	13.9	14.8	14.7	12.3	7.9	3.1			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	3.1		3.1
13-1	100.0%	7.9		7.8	0.1
12-2	96.4%	11.9		10.4	1.5
11-3	77.8%	11.4		7.3	3.8	0.3
10-4	42.3%	6.3		2.4	2.9	0.9	0.1
9-5	12.6%	1.8		0.2	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0
8-6	1.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	42.4%	42.4		31.2	9.1	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	3.1%		86.9%	86.9%	0.0%	14.1						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.4		0.1%
13-1	7.9%		75.7%	75.7%		14.8												0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	2.3	1.5	1.9
12-2	12.3%		62.7%	62.7%		15.3												0.0	0.0	0.2	1.1	2.6	3.8	4.6
11-3	14.7%		48.7%	48.7%		15.7														0.0	0.4	1.7	5.1	7.5
10-4	14.8%		33.6%	33.6%		15.8															0.1	0.6	4.3	9.8
9-5	13.9%		23.0%	23.0%		15.9															0.0	0.2	3.0	10.7
8-6	11.3%		13.2%	13.2%		16.0																0.0	1.5	9.8
7-7	8.8%		7.5%	7.5%		16.0																	0.7	8.1
6-8	5.7%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																	0.3	5.5
5-9	3.9%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.1	3.8
4-10	2.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
3-11	1.0%																							1.0
2-12	0.4%																							0.4
1-13	0.1%																							0.1
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		34.2%	34.2%	0.0%	15.4						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.2	4.1	8.2	20.4	65.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	8.6					34.8					30.4	34.8