Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
80 College of Charleston 36.8%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.7      +4.4 56 +2.2 107 76.4 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Hofstra 19.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.7      +2.9 92 +0.8 147 67.8 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Drexel 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +2.5      -0.2 184 +2.7 94 60.9 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 UNC Wilmington 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +1.9      +0.4 161 +1.4 127 63.8 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 Towson 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0.6      +0.1 168 +0.5 158 63.0 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Delaware 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.3      -0.1 181 -1.1 212 67.3 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Northeastern 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 9 - 9 -3.4      -3.4 282 0.0 171 67.3 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 Stony Brook 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -5.2      -3.4 280 -1.8 228 61.9 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 Campbell 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -7.0      -3.7 291 -3.3 275 62.2 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 William & Mary 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.6      -3.9 294 -3.7 287 63.8 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Elon 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -8.1      -4.7 308 -3.4 278 65.9 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 Monmouth 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 21 6 - 12 -8.2      -5.4 325 -2.8 261 70.4 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 Hampton 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -8.3      -3.1 273 -5.3 328 71.2 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
352 N.C. A&T 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 4 - 14 -12.7      -7.0 350 -5.7 337 73.5 47 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 2.6 42.5 20.8 12.8 8.3 5.8 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 3.6 24.0 18.6 15.3 11.9 9.3 6.8 4.8 3.3 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1
Drexel 4.0 17.6 18.5 15.7 13.0 10.2 7.9 5.7 4.1 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1
UNC Wilmington 4.6 14.9 14.9 13.9 12.5 10.9 8.8 6.9 5.5 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.3
Towson 5.1 10.7 12.2 12.6 12.2 11.3 10.0 8.6 7.1 5.3 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.5
Delaware 5.7 6.9 10.1 11.1 11.7 11.9 10.5 9.6 7.6 6.4 5.1 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.7
Northeastern 7.1 3.5 5.3 7.4 8.7 9.9 10.0 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.1
Stony Brook 8.1 1.8 3.3 5.0 6.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 9.9 10.5 9.7 9.4 8.1 6.3 3.6
Campbell 8.9 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.4 8.9 10.0 10.5 11.1 10.8 10.2 8.5 6.5
William & Mary 9.4 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.6 7.8 9.0 9.8 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.1 8.7
Elon 9.3 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.3 6.7 8.4 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.3 11.4 9.9 8.4
Monmouth 9.8 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.1 8.4 9.7 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.8 9.2
Hampton 9.4 0.7 1.4 2.6 3.6 4.8 6.5 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.7 8.8
N.C. A&T 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.2 6.3 7.9 10.2 14.2 19.6 29.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.7 9.4 12.7 14.8 16.1 14.5 10.5 4.8
Hofstra 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.9 5.8 8.3 10.3 12.9 13.2 13.5 11.6 8.7 5.1 1.6
Drexel 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.2 11.8 13.5 14.0 12.7 10.3 6.7 3.2 0.9
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 8.3 10.3 12.1 12.7 12.3 10.8 8.2 5.3 2.3 0.8
Towson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.9 8.3 10.1 11.4 12.2 12.4 10.9 9.1 6.1 3.7 1.6 0.4
Delaware 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.1 5.4 7.1 9.4 10.7 12.2 12.7 11.4 9.6 7.1 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.2
Northeastern 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.5 8.6 10.3 11.7 11.5 11.5 10.2 8.2 5.8 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 6.5 9.0 10.9 12.0 12.0 11.4 9.4 7.8 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Campbell 7 - 11 0.3 1.6 3.4 5.9 8.9 10.6 12.8 12.5 12.0 9.9 8.1 5.8 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 7 - 11 0.7 2.3 5.1 7.6 9.6 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 4.4 7.1 9.9 11.7 12.6 12.2 11.3 9.3 7.4 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 6 - 12 0.7 2.6 5.6 8.6 11.4 13.2 13.5 11.8 10.3 8.1 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.6 2.1 4.7 7.6 9.9 11.7 12.8 12.5 11.0 9.0 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 4.1 9.7 13.6 15.3 14.5 12.8 9.9 7.6 5.0 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 42.5% 30.4 9.5 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 24.0% 15.5 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Drexel 17.6% 10.5 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 14.9% 8.9 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Towson 10.7% 6.1 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 6.9% 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 3.5% 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Campbell 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 36.8% 34.3% 2.4% 12   0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.0 7.1 10.3 7.2 3.5 1.2 0.4 63.2 3.7%
Hofstra 19.2% 18.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 3.0 5.2 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.7 80.8 1.5%
Drexel 14.3% 13.6% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 85.7 0.7%
UNC Wilmington 12.8% 12.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.1 2.1 1.4 1.0 87.2 0.6%
Towson 8.9% 8.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 91.1 0.4%
Delaware 5.6% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 94.4 0.1%
Northeastern 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 97.1 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 98.3 0.0%
Campbell 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 99.2 0.0%
William & Mary 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Elon 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Monmouth 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 36.8% 1.3% 36.1% 11.6% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Hofstra 19.2% 1.1% 18.7% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 14.3% 0.6% 14.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 12.8% 1.0% 12.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 8.9% 0.5% 8.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 5.6% 0.5% 5.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.9% 0.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 94.3 3.9 0.0
2nd Round 23.6% 0.2 76.4 23.2 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5 0.0
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1