Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#110
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 16.4% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.0 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 66.9% 83.8% 59.5%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 83.9% 69.6%
Conference Champion 15.6% 22.4% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.3% 3.3%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round10.8% 16.0% 8.6%
Second Round1.9% 3.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 410 - 315 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 114   @ Akron L 67-72 30%    
  Nov 19, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 22, 2023 151   South Dakota St. W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 25, 2023 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 01, 2023 77   @ UAB L 72-81 22%    
  Dec 09, 2023 337   Northwestern St. W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 13, 2023 271   @ McNeese St. W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 18, 2023 341   @ Lamar W 74-65 80%    
  Dec 23, 2023 60   Mississippi L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 30, 2023 229   @ Georgia Southern W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 04, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 06, 2024 121   James Madison W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 11, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 13, 2024 218   @ Troy W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 17, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 218   Troy W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 24, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 135   @ Marshall L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 31, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 07, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 15, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 17, 2024 193   Texas St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 22, 2024 177   South Alabama W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 176   Louisiana W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 68-70 45%    
  Mar 01, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 4.4 3.6 1.7 0.6 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 9.9 8.5 6.1 3.9 1.8 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.9% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 92.1% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 71.8% 4.4    2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.3% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.3% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 9.7 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 67.9% 49.9% 18.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.0%
17-1 1.8% 55.1% 44.2% 10.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 19.4%
16-2 3.9% 39.2% 36.3% 2.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 4.6%
15-3 6.1% 26.3% 25.8% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.5 0.6%
14-4 8.5% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 6.8 0.0%
13-5 9.9% 15.0% 15.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.4
12-6 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 10.0
11-7 11.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.3
10-8 11.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.4
9-9 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.5
8-10 8.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
7-11 6.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 3.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.2% 10.8% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.0 88.8 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 0.9 27.6 15.5 26.7 6.9 13.8 7.8 0.9