IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Orleans
Southland
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.5	#299
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#22
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#235

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.8	#344

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.4%	20.6%	10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	30.4%	58.6%	28.0%
.500 or above in Conference	65.3%	81.7%	63.9%
Conference Champion	14.2%	25.8%	13.2%
Last Place in Conference	5.5%	2.1%	5.8%

First Four	5.1%	5.8%	5.1%
First Round	8.7%	17.3%	7.9%
Second Round	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 8	11 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 18, 2023	96	@ Loyola Chicago	L	67-82	8%
Nov 20, 2023	59	@ Oklahoma St.	L	65-85	4%
Nov 25, 2023	267	North Dakota	L	77-79	44%
Nov 26, 2023	336	@ Central Arkansas	W	86-85	50%
Nov 30, 2023	113	@ Minnesota	L	68-82	10%
Dec 09, 2023	147	@ San Jose St.	L	65-77	15%
Dec 11, 2023	92	@ San Francisco	L	71-87	8%
Dec 21, 2023	38	@ Ohio St.	L	66-88	3%
Dec 29, 2023	115	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	72-86	12%
Jan 06, 2024	268	SE Louisiana	W	82-81	54%
Jan 08, 2024	291	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	76-74	58%
Jan 13, 2024	283	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	81-79	57%
Jan 15, 2024	284	@ Nicholls St.	L	80-84	37%
Jan 20, 2024	337	Northwestern St.	W	80-74	70%
Jan 22, 2024	360	@ Houston Christian	W	86-82	64%
Jan 27, 2024	271	@ McNeese St.	L	75-80	35%
Jan 29, 2024	341	@ Lamar	W	76-75	53%
Feb 03, 2024	348	Incarnate Word	W	81-73	75%
Feb 05, 2024	360	Houston Christian	W	89-79	81%
Feb 10, 2024	291	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	L	73-77	38%
Feb 12, 2024	337	@ Northwestern St.	W	77-76	51%
Feb 17, 2024	341	Lamar	W	79-72	72%
Feb 19, 2024	284	Nicholls St.	W	83-81	57%
Feb 24, 2024	268	@ SE Louisiana	L	79-84	35%
Mar 02, 2024	348	@ Incarnate Word	W	78-76	57%
Mar 04, 2024	283	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	78-82	37%
Mar 06, 2024	271	McNeese St.	W	78-77	54%
Projected Record						11 - 16	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	3.5	3.8	2.5	1.0	0.3		14.2	1st
2nd											0.2	1.5	4.1	4.4	2.4	0.7	0.1				13.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.8	4.2	1.5	0.2	0.0					12.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.9	5.1	3.9	1.0	0.1							12.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.1	4.9	3.4	0.6	0.1								11.4	5th
6th							0.3	2.1	4.5	2.9	0.5	0.0									10.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	1.9	3.8	2.7	0.4	0.0										9.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.5	1.7	3.0	1.9	0.3	0.0											7.5	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.1	1.2	0.2	0.0												5.7	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0													3.2	10th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	3.0	4.5	6.4	8.2	9.8	10.4	11.2	11.0	10.0	8.2	6.1	4.5	2.5	1.0	0.3			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	1.0		1.0	0.0
16-2	97.7%	2.5		2.3	0.2
15-3	84.3%	3.8		2.9	0.8	0.0
14-4	56.8%	3.5		2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	28.5%	2.3		0.9	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.9%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0								0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.2%	14.2		9.4	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		76.2%	76.2%		13.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	1.0%		68.7%	68.7%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.3
16-2	2.5%		55.9%	55.9%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	1.1
15-3	4.5%		41.0%	41.0%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	2.7
14-4	6.1%		32.0%	32.0%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	4.1
13-5	8.2%		20.7%	20.7%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	6.5
12-6	10.0%		13.7%	13.7%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.3	8.7
11-7	11.0%		9.9%	9.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	1.1	9.9
10-8	11.2%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																0.0	0.5	10.7
9-9	10.4%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																	0.3	10.1
8-10	9.8%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.2	9.6
7-11	8.2%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	8.1
6-12	6.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
5-13	4.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
4-14	3.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	15.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	2.5	7.6	88.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%