Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#165
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#146
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 27.8% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 2.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 12.0 13.6
.500 or above 80.8% 97.5% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 92.8% 78.1%
Conference Champion 17.2% 36.2% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round13.6% 27.1% 13.3%
Second Round1.8% 5.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 414 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 2   @ Purdue L 60-81 2%    
  Nov 10, 2023 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-76 20%    
  Nov 17, 2023 345   South Carolina St. W 87-72 92%    
  Nov 22, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 79-63 93%    
  Nov 24, 2023 330   Merrimack W 73-60 88%    
  Nov 25, 2023 352   N.C. A&T W 83-67 92%    
  Nov 30, 2023 176   Louisiana W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 11, 2023 338   Alabama A&M W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 128   Belmont W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 19, 2023 310   @ Valparaiso W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 21, 2023 222   @ Texas Southern W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 03, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 11, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 351   VMI W 82-66 91%    
  Jan 17, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 20, 2024 237   Mercer W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 24, 2024 104   @ Furman L 73-80 29%    
  Jan 27, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 31, 2024 242   Wofford W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 08, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 10, 2024 351   @ VMI W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 14, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 17, 2024 237   @ Mercer W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 21, 2024 104   Furman L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 28, 2024 242   @ Wofford W 73-71 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 320   The Citadel W 79-67 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.9 4.9 3.8 1.8 0.5 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.9 4.6 1.9 0.3 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.0 1.2 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.7 7.8 9.8 11.2 12.0 12.0 11.1 9.1 6.8 4.1 1.8 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 92.5% 3.8    3.3 0.5
15-3 72.2% 4.9    3.2 1.6 0.1
14-4 43.1% 3.9    1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.1 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 80.0% 72.7% 7.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.0%
17-1 1.8% 57.2% 51.7% 5.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 11.5%
16-2 4.1% 46.5% 46.3% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.4%
15-3 6.8% 31.9% 31.8% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.1%
14-4 9.1% 24.9% 24.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.9
13-5 11.1% 19.5% 19.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 8.9
12-6 12.0% 12.1% 12.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 10.5
11-7 12.0% 8.7% 8.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 10.9
10-8 11.2% 6.3% 6.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.5
9-9 9.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.4
8-10 7.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.6
7-11 5.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 13.8% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.3 3.8 2.4 1.4 86.0 0.2%