IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Merrimack
Northeast
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.8	#330
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.2	#226
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-10.5	#360

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.5%	25.3%	11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.7	15.9

.500 or above	36.2%	68.9%	34.2%
.500 or above in Conference	69.3%	85.2%	68.3%
Conference Champion	16.2%	29.0%	15.4%
Last Place in Conference	4.3%	1.4%	4.5%

First Four	8.8%	13.5%	8.5%
First Round	7.4%	17.9%	6.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 9	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	108	@ Vermont	L	54-71	6%
Nov 12, 2023	264	@ Maine	L	59-66	25%
Nov 15, 2023	38	@ Ohio St.	L	52-76	1%
Nov 22, 2023	352	N.C. A&T	W	68-65	60%
Nov 24, 2023	165	@ Samford	L	60-73	12%
Nov 25, 2023	353	Alabama St.	W	64-61	61%
Nov 29, 2023	106	@ Georgetown	L	59-76	7%
Dec 02, 2023	179	Umass Lowell	L	63-69	29%
Dec 05, 2023	36	@ Florida	L	54-78	2%
Dec 19, 2023	58	@ Cincinnati	L	55-77	3%
Dec 22, 2023	331	Bucknell	W	65-62	61%
Dec 30, 2023	313	@ Boston University	L	59-63	36%
Jan 04, 2024	314	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	70-68	56%
Jan 06, 2024	301	Sacred Heart	W	68-67	52%
Jan 13, 2024	362	@ Le Moyne	W	67-60	72%
Jan 15, 2024	335	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	60-62	43%
Jan 19, 2024	298	Wagner	W	57-56	52%
Jan 21, 2024	350	Stonehill	W	66-60	69%
Jan 25, 2024	298	@ Wagner	L	54-59	33%
Jan 27, 2024	358	@ St. Francis (PA)	W	66-65	54%
Feb 03, 2024	335	Central Connecticut St.	W	63-59	63%
Feb 08, 2024	359	@ LIU Brooklyn	W	71-69	56%
Feb 10, 2024	362	Le Moyne	W	70-57	86%
Feb 15, 2024	350	@ Stonehill	L	63-64	49%
Feb 17, 2024	359	LIU Brooklyn	W	74-66	74%
Feb 22, 2024	358	St. Francis (PA)	W	69-62	72%
Feb 29, 2024	314	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	67-71	36%
Mar 02, 2024	301	@ Sacred Heart	L	65-70	33%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	1.6	4.0	4.7	3.5	1.7	0.4		16.2	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	3.0	5.7	4.5	1.6	0.2				15.5	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	3.9	6.5	3.4	0.6	0.0					15.1	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.9	6.3	2.5	0.3	0.0						13.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.8	4.0	5.7	2.0	0.2	0.0							12.6	5th
6th					0.1	0.8	3.5	4.5	1.4	0.1									10.5	6th
7th				0.1	1.0	2.9	3.2	1.1	0.0										8.4	7th
8th		0.0	0.2	1.0	2.2	1.6	0.5	0.0											5.6	8th
9th	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.2													2.3	9th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.9	3.8	5.5	8.1	10.4	11.7	12.8	12.5	11.0	9.1	6.3	3.7	1.7	0.4			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
15-1	100.0%	1.7		1.7	0.0
14-2	95.0%	3.5		3.1	0.5	0.0
13-3	74.0%	4.7		3.1	1.5	0.1
12-4	44.1%	4.0		1.6	1.9	0.6	0.0
11-5	14.4%	1.6		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	16.2%	16.2		10.1	4.7	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.4%		82.9%	82.9%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
15-1	1.7%		66.3%	66.3%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6
14-2	3.7%		55.4%	55.4%		15.8														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	1.7
13-3	6.3%		37.6%	37.6%		15.9															0.0	0.2	2.1	4.0
12-4	9.1%		27.9%	27.9%		16.0															0.0	0.1	2.4	6.6
11-5	11.0%		16.0%	16.0%		16.0																0.0	1.7	9.2
10-6	12.5%		9.2%	9.2%		16.0																0.0	1.1	11.4
9-7	12.8%		5.2%	5.2%		16.0																0.0	0.7	12.1
8-8	11.7%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.3	11.4
7-9	10.4%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	10.2
6-10	8.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	8.1
5-11	5.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
4-12	3.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
3-13	1.9%																							1.9
2-14	0.8%																							0.8
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.0	0.3	1.2	11.0	87.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%