Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#107
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 24.5% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 83.7% 91.3% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 89.3% 80.4%
Conference Champion 25.1% 29.9% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.1% 2.7%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.0%
First Round19.8% 23.9% 15.2%
Second Round2.2% 2.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 414 - 416 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 243   @ Dartmouth W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 14, 2023 98   @ Georgia Tech L 68-76 23%    
  Nov 16, 2023 65   @ Arizona St. L 67-79 15%    
  Nov 20, 2023 279   @ St. Peter's W 66-63 61%    
  Nov 29, 2023 350   @ Stonehill W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 02, 2023 330   @ Merrimack W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 09, 2023 192   @ Massachusetts L 76-78 42%    
  Dec 12, 2023 359   LIU Brooklyn W 87-70 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 335   Central Connecticut St. W 76-63 87%    
  Dec 22, 2023 313   @ Boston University W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 06, 2024 288   @ New Hampshire W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 11, 2024 339   NJIT W 78-64 88%    
  Jan 13, 2024 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 18, 2024 318   @ Albany W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 297   @ Binghamton W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2024 108   Vermont L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 264   Maine W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 03, 2024 288   New Hampshire W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 08, 2024 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 339   @ NJIT W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 208   @ Bryant L 80-81 45%    
  Feb 22, 2024 297   Binghamton W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 24, 2024 318   Albany W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 29, 2024 208   Bryant W 83-78 65%    
  Mar 02, 2024 108   @ Vermont L 67-74 28%    
  Mar 05, 2024 264   @ Maine W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 4.0 6.7 7.1 4.5 1.4 25.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.7 8.2 4.8 1.1 25.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 6.0 8.4 10.6 13.0 14.0 13.5 11.6 8.2 4.5 1.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
15-1 100.0% 4.5    4.2 0.3
14-2 86.5% 7.1    5.4 1.6 0.0
13-3 57.8% 6.7    3.9 2.5 0.3 0.0
12-4 29.4% 4.0    1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0
11-5 8.8% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 16.6 7.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.4% 77.3% 73.8% 3.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.3%
15-1 4.5% 57.4% 57.0% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.0%
14-2 8.2% 46.4% 46.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 4.4
13-3 11.6% 34.6% 34.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.1 7.6
12-4 13.5% 25.0% 25.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.4 10.1
11-5 14.0% 18.6% 18.6% 15.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 11.4
10-6 13.0% 12.5% 12.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 11.4
9-7 10.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.8
8-8 8.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.0
7-9 6.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.8
6-10 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-11 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-12 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.6% 20.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.8 5.4 4.9 3.4 79.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 91.6% 7.1 1.9 7.9 8.8 29.3 7.4 7.9 12.1 8.4 7.9