Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#128
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#117
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.2% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 13.4
.500 or above 71.4% 77.8% 51.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 75.8% 58.7%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.7% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.9% 3.1%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round10.3% 11.7% 5.9%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 410 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 206   Georgia St. W 77-70 76%    
  Nov 10, 2023 104   @ Furman L 75-80 33%    
  Nov 17, 2023 11   @ Arizona L 74-90 8%    
  Nov 24, 2023 311   Monmouth W 79-68 83%    
  Nov 25, 2023 203   @ Penn W 75-74 54%    
  Nov 26, 2023 293   Lafayette W 72-63 79%    
  Nov 29, 2023 123   @ Northern Iowa L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 02, 2023 310   Valparaiso W 80-66 88%    
  Dec 06, 2023 184   Lipscomb W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 09, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 71-74 42%    
  Dec 16, 2023 165   @ Samford L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 20, 2023 198   Arkansas St. W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 02, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 07, 2024 70   Drake L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 10, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 13, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 17, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 20, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 23, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 31, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 07, 2024 154   Murray St. W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 77-69 73%    
  Feb 14, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 18, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 70   @ Drake L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 24, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 28, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 03, 2024 329   Evansville W 82-67 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.9 1.3 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.0 10.7 11.0 10.4 9.1 8.0 5.6 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.9% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 93.9% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 76.4% 2.8    1.9 0.8 0.1
16-4 51.4% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.6% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 86.4% 55.0% 31.4% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8%
19-1 0.8% 76.8% 46.3% 30.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 56.9%
18-2 2.2% 53.5% 39.1% 14.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 23.6%
17-3 3.6% 37.6% 31.6% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 8.7%
16-4 5.6% 24.7% 22.9% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 2.4%
15-5 8.0% 19.1% 18.5% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 0.8%
14-6 9.1% 12.7% 12.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 0.1%
13-7 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.3
12-8 11.0% 7.9% 7.9% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.2
11-9 10.7% 5.3% 5.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.1
10-10 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-11 8.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.3
8-12 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-13 4.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 4.8
6-14 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 9.8% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 89.2 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 31.8 31.8 36.4