Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Drake 34.5%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +7.6      +3.2 85 +4.4 60 66.4 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
100 Bradley 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +4.6      +0.8 147 +3.8 70 64.3 279 0.0 1 0.0 1
122 Indiana St. 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 8 +2.7      +2.6 100 +0.1 167 74.7 36 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 Northern Iowa 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +2.6      +1.7 128 +0.9 142 68.3 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Belmont 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +2.4      +3.0 89 -0.6 191 70.6 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Missouri St. 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +1.7      -0.1 177 +1.8 116 58.4 357 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Murray St. 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.9      +1.6 129 -0.7 198 66.8 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
171 Southern Illinois 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 0.0      -3.0 271 +3.0 90 62.0 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Illinois St. 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -2.1      -0.8 208 -1.4 218 63.6 296 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Illinois-Chicago 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 13 -4.6      -2.5 258 -2.1 239 71.5 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 Valparaiso 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 15 -8.1      -5.5 326 -2.7 257 69.0 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
329 Evansville 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 4 - 16 -9.8      -6.3 340 -3.5 281 72.5 67 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 2.7 41.0 19.8 12.7 8.9 6.2 4.2 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
Bradley 3.9 20.3 17.1 14.5 12.1 10.3 7.8 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.4
Indiana St. 4.8 12.2 13.3 13.1 12.6 11.5 10.1 8.8 7.1 5.4 3.6 1.7 0.7
Northern Iowa 4.8 12.7 13.2 13.1 12.0 11.2 9.9 8.5 7.4 5.6 3.6 2.0 0.8
Belmont 5.0 11.0 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.3 10.3 9.7 7.7 6.1 4.4 2.4 0.7
Missouri St. 5.4 8.8 10.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 0.9
Murray St. 5.7 7.1 9.5 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.7 9.9 8.5 6.3 3.6 1.3
Southern Illinois 6.3 5.4 7.5 8.4 9.3 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.2 8.3 5.4 2.2
Illinois St. 7.2 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.6 8.9 9.9 11.5 12.5 13.0 11.3 8.3 4.3
Illinois-Chicago 8.3 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.6 5.9 7.7 9.7 11.9 14.0 16.1 14.5 9.1
Valparaiso 9.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.0 7.5 11.2 17.3 25.3 25.4
Evansville 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 5.4 8.7 15.2 25.3 37.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.5 7.1 9.6 11.3 12.6 13.2 12.2 10.0 6.4 2.7
Bradley 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.4 11.5 10.7 9.1 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.7
Indiana St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.0 7.9 9.4 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.0 8.5 6.4 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.2
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.3 7.7 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.3
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.0 10.7 11.0 10.4 9.1 8.0 5.6 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.4 10.6 10.0 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.5 10.2 10.7 10.9 10.1 9.3 7.5 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.5 8.1 9.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 9.3 7.7 6.0 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.1 8.7 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.1 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.5 1.7 3.7 6.0 8.6 10.4 11.4 11.3 10.8 9.6 7.9 6.2 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 5 - 15 2.5 6.7 10.3 12.7 13.7 13.3 11.3 8.9 7.2 5.2 3.6 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 4 - 16 4.8 10.0 14.0 15.2 14.6 12.0 9.7 7.0 5.0 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 41.0% 30.8 8.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 20.3% 13.4 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 12.2% 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 12.7% 8.1 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Belmont 11.0% 6.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 8.8% 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 7.1% 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 5.4% 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 2.7% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 34.5% 28.8% 5.6% 12   0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.9 8.1 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 65.5 7.9%
Bradley 18.1% 15.6% 2.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.9 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.5 81.9 3.0%
Indiana St. 11.2% 10.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 88.8 1.0%
Northern Iowa 11.1% 10.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 88.9 1.2%
Belmont 10.8% 9.8% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 89.2 1.1%
Missouri St. 9.2% 8.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 90.8 0.8%
Murray St. 7.3% 6.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 92.7 0.6%
Southern Illinois 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 94.3 0.3%
Illinois St. 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 97.1 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.6 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 34.5% 2.3% 33.4% 13.6% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Bradley 18.1% 1.6% 17.3% 5.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 11.2% 0.8% 10.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 11.1% 1.0% 10.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 10.8% 1.0% 10.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 9.2% 0.9% 8.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 7.3% 0.6% 7.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 5.7% 0.6% 5.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 2.9% 0.4% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 87.6 12.0 0.4 0.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.1 1.3 89.4 9.1 0.2
2nd Round 29.5% 0.3 70.5 28.4 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.1 0.1
Elite Eight 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1