Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
72 Dayton 25.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +7.4      +2.4 105 +5.0 48 59.1 351 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 St. Bonaventure 21.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +6.8      +2.5 103 +4.3 63 64.7 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Virginia Commonwealth 20.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +6.4      +1.0 141 +5.4 44 69.6 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Duquesne 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +5.2      +3.6 74 +1.6 120 69.8 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 Loyola Chicago 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +4.9      +1.8 125 +3.1 88 65.6 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 Saint Louis 11.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +4.1      +3.2 83 +0.9 141 72.3 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Richmond 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +2.4      +0.6 153 +1.8 115 64.2 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Saint Joseph's 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +1.9      +1.2 138 +0.8 146 72.1 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 George Mason 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      -0.3 188 +2.2 108 66.3 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
149 Davidson 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +1.2      +0.2 165 +1.0 139 63.9 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 Fordham 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +0.5      -2.1 248 +2.6 95 72.9 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Rhode Island 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -0.9      -2.2 250 +1.2 134 67.9 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Massachusetts 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 -1.1      -0.1 180 -1.0 209 75.1 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 La Salle 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.4      -0.3 189 -1.0 210 68.9 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 George Washington 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 12 -3.9      +0.4 160 -4.4 306 71.3 97 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 4.5 22.2 15.4 11.7 10.0 8.2 6.7 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.5
St. Bonaventure 4.6 21.5 15.2 12.1 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.8 5.1 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.6
Virginia Commonwealth 5.2 18.0 13.0 11.2 9.5 8.6 7.1 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.3 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.6 0.7
Duquesne 5.8 12.7 11.1 10.4 9.6 9.2 7.8 7.6 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.5 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.1
Loyola Chicago 5.7 13.4 12.3 10.7 9.7 8.5 8.0 6.6 6.3 5.6 4.7 4.2 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.3
Saint Louis 6.6 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.7 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.5 6.5 6.3 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.2 1.9
Richmond 7.4 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.4 6.7 6.7 6.3 5.3 4.6 3.0
Saint Joseph's 7.9 4.9 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.6 5.6 3.8
George Mason 7.6 6.3 6.8 7.4 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.3 6.8 6.4 5.8 5.0 4.3
Davidson 8.5 3.7 4.8 5.5 6.2 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.8 8.1 7.8 8.1 7.6 6.8 5.2
Fordham 8.9 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.1 6.5
Rhode Island 9.4 2.1 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.2 8.9
Massachusetts 9.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 4.4 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.4 8.8 8.7 9.6 9.9 9.2
La Salle 9.6 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.3 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.2
George Washington 11.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 5.1 5.9 7.2 8.6 10.2 11.8 15.4 20.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 11.5 12.5 11.9 10.7 8.5 6.2 3.2 0.9
St. Bonaventure 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.5 7.9 9.8 11.3 12.4 11.7 11.0 8.4 5.7 3.1 1.0
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.8 11.7 11.4 10.7 9.4 7.1 4.4 2.3 0.8
Duquesne 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.1 5.0 7.0 8.8 10.6 11.7 12.0 11.2 9.5 7.6 5.1 3.1 1.4 0.3
Loyola Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.6 9.8 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.1 8.1 5.7 3.5 1.7 0.4
Saint Louis 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.7 8.3 10.3 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.0 5.9 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.2
Richmond 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.1 8.0 9.7 11.3 11.2 11.2 10.2 8.2 6.5 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.1 9.4 10.7 11.2 11.4 10.6 9.0 7.5 5.3 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
George Mason 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.0 6.1 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1
Davidson 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.0 6.2 8.2 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.9 10.1 8.1 6.5 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Fordham 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.8 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.6 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Rhode Island 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.5 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.3 11.6 10.9 10.2 8.4 6.8 4.9 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.3 8.5 10.3 11.3 12.1 11.5 9.7 8.2 6.2 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.2 6.3 8.6 10.2 11.7 11.6 11.1 9.6 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Washington 6 - 12 1.6 4.9 8.1 11.1 12.5 12.7 12.5 10.7 8.6 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 22.2% 14.4 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 21.5% 13.9 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 18.0% 11.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 12.7% 7.8 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Chicago 13.4% 8.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 9.0% 5.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Richmond 6.5% 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 4.9% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Mason 6.3% 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 3.7% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 25.9% 16.0% 9.9% 11   0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.4 6.2 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 74.1 11.8%
St. Bonaventure 21.6% 14.4% 7.3% 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.5 5.3 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 78.4 8.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.2% 13.2% 7.0% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 5.1 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 79.8 8.1%
Duquesne 15.1% 10.1% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 84.9 5.6%
Loyola Chicago 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 86.7 4.2%
Saint Louis 11.8% 8.3% 3.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 88.2 3.9%
Richmond 6.9% 5.2% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 93.1 1.7%
Saint Joseph's 5.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 94.1 1.3%
George Mason 5.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 94.3 1.1%
Davidson 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 95.0 1.0%
Fordham 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 96.2 0.5%
Rhode Island 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 97.5 0.3%
Massachusetts 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 97.7 0.2%
La Salle 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 98.1 0.2%
George Washington 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 25.9% 3.3% 24.3% 11.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 21.6% 2.7% 20.4% 9.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.2% 2.7% 19.0% 7.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Duquesne 15.1% 2.2% 14.1% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 13.3% 1.7% 12.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Louis 11.8% 1.8% 11.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Richmond 6.9% 1.1% 6.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 5.9% 0.8% 5.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 5.7% 0.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 5.0% 0.8% 4.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 3.8% 0.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.5% 0.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 2.3% 0.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.1 31.4 5.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.3 0.9 68.4 27.2 3.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 42.9% 0.5 57.1 37.1 5.5 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.3% 0.2 83.7 15.5 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.0 0.1 0.0
Final Four 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3