IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Longwood
Big South
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.4	#213
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.7	#242
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#249

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#184

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.3%	21.0%	11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.8	14.5

.500 or above	74.5%	91.5%	72.0%
.500 or above in Conference	65.6%	80.4%	63.4%
Conference Champion	14.7%	24.8%	13.2%
Last Place in Conference	6.6%	2.9%	7.2%

First Four	1.3%	1.0%	1.4%
First Round	11.6%	20.5%	10.3%
Second Round	0.9%	2.2%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 5	16 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	78	@ St. Bonaventure	L	60-72	13%
Nov 15, 2023	342	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	70-64	72%
Nov 18, 2023	306	NC Central	W	72-64	77%
Nov 24, 2023	355	Delaware St.	W	75-61	89%
Nov 25, 2023	341	Lamar	W	73-61	86%
Nov 26, 2023	349	Bethune-Cookman	W	77-64	87%
Dec 03, 2023	333	@ Morgan St.	W	74-69	67%
Dec 09, 2023	355	@ Delaware St.	W	72-64	75%
Dec 13, 2023	217	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	73-76	41%
Dec 17, 2023	351	VMI	W	76-63	87%
Dec 20, 2023	306	@ NC Central	W	69-67	58%
Dec 30, 2023	72	@ Dayton	L	56-69	14%
Jan 03, 2024	189	@ Winthrop	L	68-73	35%
Jan 06, 2024	328	@ Charleston Southern	W	71-67	63%
Jan 10, 2024	182	Radford	W	66-65	54%
Jan 13, 2024	170	@ UNC Asheville	L	67-72	32%
Jan 17, 2024	273	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	69-68	53%
Jan 20, 2024	322	Presbyterian	W	69-59	79%
Jan 24, 2024	195	Gardner-Webb	W	67-65	56%
Jan 31, 2024	278	@ High Point	W	75-74	53%
Feb 03, 2024	328	@ Charleston Southern	W	71-67	63%
Feb 07, 2024	273	South Carolina Upstate	W	72-65	71%
Feb 10, 2024	189	Winthrop	W	71-70	55%
Feb 17, 2024	322	@ Presbyterian	W	66-62	62%
Feb 21, 2024	170	UNC Asheville	W	70-69	52%
Feb 24, 2024	182	@ Radford	L	63-68	35%
Feb 28, 2024	195	@ Gardner-Webb	L	64-68	38%
Mar 02, 2024	278	High Point	W	78-71	71%
Projected Record						16 - 12	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.3	1.6	3.6	4.2	3.1	1.5	0.4		14.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	3.0	5.3	3.8	1.5	0.2				14.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	3.9	5.9	3.3	0.6	0.0					14.4	3rd
4th							0.0	0.8	4.3	6.0	2.6	0.3	0.0						14.1	4th
5th						0.0	1.0	4.1	5.5	1.9	0.1								12.7	5th
6th				0.0	0.1	1.1	3.8	4.6	1.4	0.1	0.0								11.0	6th
7th				0.2	1.1	3.3	3.3	1.0	0.0										8.8	7th
8th		0.0	0.3	1.1	2.5	2.0	0.6	0.0											6.5	8th
9th	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0												3.7	9th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.3	4.5	6.5	8.7	10.5	12.0	12.3	11.9	10.5	8.0	5.7	3.3	1.5	0.4			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
15-1	100.0%	1.5		1.4	0.0
14-2	94.3%	3.1		2.6	0.5	0.0
13-3	74.1%	4.2		2.8	1.4	0.1
12-4	44.6%	3.6		1.5	1.6	0.5	0.0
11-5	15.2%	1.6		0.3	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
10-6	2.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	14.7%	14.7		9.1	4.2	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.4%		71.5%	70.4%	1.1%	11.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.1		3.8%
15-1	1.5%		60.8%	59.9%	1.0%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.6		2.4%
14-2	3.3%		44.5%	44.5%		13.3												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	1.8
13-3	5.7%		34.4%	34.4%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	3.7
12-4	8.0%		26.6%	26.6%		14.4													0.0	0.3	0.9	0.8	0.2	5.9
11-5	10.5%		17.0%	17.0%		14.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.3	8.7
10-6	11.9%		12.6%	12.6%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	10.4
9-7	12.3%		8.2%	8.2%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	11.3
8-8	12.0%		5.2%	5.2%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.5	11.4
7-9	10.5%		3.0%	3.0%		15.9																0.0	0.3	10.2
6-10	8.7%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.2	8.5
5-11	6.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	6.4
4-12	4.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
3-13	2.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
2-14	1.3%																							1.3
1-15	0.5%																							0.5
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		12.3%	12.2%	0.0%	14.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.9	3.2	3.2	2.8	87.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	86.7%	7.6					1.7	28.3	28.3		13.3	1.7	13.3