Preseason Rankings
Big South
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
170 UNC Asheville 22.9%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 +0.1      -0.1 178 +0.1 165 70.1 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Radford 19.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -0.6      -0.9 214 +0.3 163 62.9 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 Winthrop 18.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 -0.9      +2.3 107 -3.2 272 67.3 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Gardner-Webb 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 7 -1.3      -2.9 266 +1.5 123 66.0 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Longwood 12.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 7 -2.4      -2.1 249 -0.3 184 65.7 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 South Carolina Upstate 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 9 -6.1      -3.3 279 -2.7 258 68.9 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 High Point 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 9 -6.3      -1.6 238 -4.7 315 77.3 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Presbyterian 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 11 -9.0      -6.1 337 -2.9 264 62.7 315 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Charleston Southern 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 5 - 11 -9.6      -3.3 278 -6.3 348 65.0 267 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UNC Asheville 3.1 28.3 19.8 15.6 12.3 9.3 6.5 4.3 2.6 1.2
Radford 3.4 24.3 18.7 15.8 12.9 10.2 7.8 5.3 3.3 1.6
Winthrop 3.5 22.6 18.6 15.6 13.3 10.6 8.0 5.9 3.6 1.7
Gardner-Webb 3.6 20.3 17.6 15.6 13.5 11.3 8.6 6.6 4.3 2.1
Longwood 4.2 14.7 14.2 14.4 14.1 12.7 11.0 8.8 6.5 3.7
South Carolina Upstate 5.6 5.0 7.2 9.5 10.9 13.6 14.4 14.9 13.9 10.6
High Point 5.7 4.9 6.9 8.8 10.6 13.1 14.7 15.1 14.6 11.4
Presbyterian 6.7 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 9.4 13.1 16.5 20.7 23.8
Charleston Southern 6.8 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.9 9.1 12.5 15.9 21.0 25.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UNC Asheville 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.3 11.5 13.0 13.0 12.6 10.4 7.4 4.1 1.3
Radford 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.9 10.1 11.9 13.0 13.0 11.6 8.9 6.2 3.3 1.0
Winthrop 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.2 8.1 10.5 12.3 12.9 12.5 11.5 8.6 5.6 2.8 0.9
Gardner-Webb 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.8 11.0 12.5 12.7 12.1 10.5 7.7 5.1 2.2 0.7
Longwood 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.5 6.5 8.7 10.5 12.0 12.3 11.9 10.5 8.0 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.4
South Carolina Upstate 7 - 9 0.5 1.9 4.1 6.9 9.3 11.7 12.7 12.5 11.5 9.5 7.8 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
High Point 7 - 9 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.1 9.9 12.0 12.8 12.4 11.3 9.0 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Presbyterian 5 - 11 2.0 5.6 9.5 12.2 13.7 13.2 12.4 10.6 7.9 5.3 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 5 - 11 2.2 5.9 9.9 12.5 13.9 13.2 12.1 10.0 7.6 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Asheville 28.3% 19.5 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Radford 24.3% 16.3 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Winthrop 22.6% 15.0 6.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
Gardner-Webb 20.3% 13.2 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Longwood 14.7% 9.1 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5.0% 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
High Point 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Presbyterian 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Asheville 22.9% 22.9% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.1 5.7 4.6 3.2 77.1 0.1%
Radford 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.2 5.1 4.3 3.2 80.5 0.0%
Winthrop 18.2% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 4.5 4.4 3.2 81.8 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 16.3% 16.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 83.7 0.1%
Longwood 12.3% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.2 2.8 87.7 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.9 95.8 0.0%
High Point 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 96.0 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 98.5 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Asheville 22.9% 2.0% 22.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 19.5% 1.8% 18.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 18.2% 1.8% 17.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 16.3% 2.6% 15.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 12.3% 1.3% 11.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 4.2% 1.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 4.0% 1.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 93.9% 0.9 6.1 93.7 0.1
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0