Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Kansas 94.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.9      +10.3 4 +8.6 6 71.5 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
3 Houston 94.4%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.7      +8.1 16 +10.6 1 60.5 351 0.0 1 0.0 1
8 Iowa St. 85.0%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +16.2      +6.0 33 +10.2 2 67.9 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Baylor 83.3%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +16.1      +10.0 5 +6.2 21 64.9 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
11 Arizona 84.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +16.0      +9.0 9 +7.0 14 78.5 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Texas Tech 63.9%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.7      +7.0 23 +5.7 27 66.3 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Cincinnati 59.2%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.9      +5.8 42 +6.1 22 68.1 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 BYU 55.5%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 10 +11.7      +7.3 21 +4.3 54 71.4 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Kansas St. 49.9%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 11 +11.1      +4.5 60 +6.5 18 68.3 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 TCU 38.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +9.5      +5.0 53 +4.5 49 73.6 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 West Virginia 30.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.5      +4.9 54 +3.6 78 70.1 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 Central Florida 28.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +7.9      +3.3 90 +4.6 48 70.7 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Arizona St. 27.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +7.7      +3.2 91 +4.5 50 71.5 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 Utah 23.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +7.4      +3.5 86 +3.9 72 73.2 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 Colorado 25.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +7.4      +3.6 84 +3.9 73 68.9 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Oklahoma St. 23.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 13 +7.0      +2.8 99 +4.2 58 67.8 200 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 3.6 28.9 18.1 13.7 9.9 7.7 5.8 4.4 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Houston 3.7 28.4 17.6 13.2 10.3 7.8 6.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1
Iowa St. 5.1 15.0 14.3 12.3 11.0 9.6 7.8 6.8 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.4
Baylor 5.2 14.4 13.6 12.2 10.8 9.7 8.3 6.8 5.8 4.7 3.8 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4
Arizona 5.3 14.0 13.2 12.0 10.6 9.1 8.4 7.1 6.1 4.9 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.4
Texas Tech 7.3 5.7 6.9 8.0 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.2 8.0 7.4 6.6 6.0 5.2 4.6 3.4 2.6 1.6
Cincinnati 7.7 4.8 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.3 2.5
BYU 7.8 4.5 6.1 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.6 6.9 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.5
Kansas St. 8.6 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.7 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.1 6.4 5.8 4.9 3.6
TCU 9.4 1.8 3.1 4.0 4.9 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.1
West Virginia 10.2 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.6 5.4 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.8 7.2
Central Florida 10.7 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.7 6.4 7.3 8.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.1 9.6 9.4
Arizona St. 10.9 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.3 5.9 7.0 7.8 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.7 10.7
Utah 10.9 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.1 7.1 7.8 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.0
Colorado 11.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.2
Oklahoma St. 11.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.7 6.5 7.6 8.2 9.0 9.9 11.0 12.0 12.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Kansas 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.1 10.3 12.2 12.5 12.8 10.7 8.2 4.7 1.7
Houston 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.6 10.3 12.0 12.4 12.1 10.7 8.1 4.4 1.7
Iowa St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.2 10.4 11.4 11.6 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.2 2.0 0.6
Baylor 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.6 10.7 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.6 5.9 3.9 1.9 0.5
Arizona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.2 8.3 9.7 10.7 11.1 11.0 9.6 8.2 6.1 3.8 1.8 0.5
Texas Tech 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.7 8.3 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
Cincinnati 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.7 9.0 9.9 10.2 10.5 9.7 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
BYU 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.1 9.6 8.2 6.9 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
Kansas St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.6 7.0 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
TCU 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.3 7.1 8.9 10.4 10.5 10.9 9.9 9.1 7.1 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.7 7.3 9.0 10.1 11.0 11.0 10.2 8.9 7.4 5.9 4.1 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 8 - 12 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 8.0 9.6 11.2 11.3 10.8 10.0 8.2 6.5 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 7 - 13 0.6 2.0 4.2 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.3 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 7 - 13 0.5 1.8 3.6 6.2 8.4 10.2 11.3 11.3 10.8 9.6 7.9 6.2 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 7 - 13 0.7 2.2 4.3 6.7 8.8 10.4 11.2 11.1 10.6 9.3 7.6 5.8 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.7 7.0 9.6 10.8 11.4 11.1 10.6 8.9 7.1 5.5 4.0 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 28.9% 19.6 7.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 28.4% 19.5 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 15.0% 9.5 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baylor 14.4% 9.1 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona 14.0% 8.6 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 5.7% 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.8% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 4.5% 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 94.3% 21.3% 73.0% 1   32.2 20.7 13.1 8.8 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.7 92.8%
Houston 94.4% 20.7% 73.6% 1   30.2 20.3 13.2 9.3 6.4 4.5 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 92.9%
Iowa St. 85.0% 12.0% 73.0% 3   14.8 14.0 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.2 5.3 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 15.0 83.0%
Baylor 83.3% 12.0% 71.2% 2   15.2 14.1 12.5 10.0 8.2 5.9 4.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 81.0%
Arizona 84.5% 11.4% 73.1% 2   15.5 14.4 12.2 10.1 8.1 6.6 4.9 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 82.5%
Texas Tech 63.9% 4.8% 59.1% 7   3.8 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.7 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 36.1 62.1%
Cincinnati 59.2% 3.8% 55.4% 8   3.3 4.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 40.8 57.6%
BYU 55.5% 3.8% 51.7% 9   2.7 3.7 4.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.5 4.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 44.5 53.8%
Kansas St. 49.9% 2.9% 47.0% 9   2.0 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.8 5.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 50.1 48.4%
TCU 38.6% 1.8% 36.9% 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.4 37.5%
West Virginia 30.8% 1.4% 29.5% 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.9 1.0 0.0 69.2 29.9%
Central Florida 28.7% 0.9% 27.8% 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.8 1.0 0.0 71.3 28.0%
Arizona St. 27.0% 0.8% 26.1% 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.0 26.4%
Utah 23.0% 0.8% 22.2% 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 77.0 22.4%
Colorado 25.2% 0.8% 24.4% 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 74.8 24.6%
Oklahoma St. 23.7% 0.7% 23.1% 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 76.3 23.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 94.3% 1.8% 93.5% 83.6% 59.7% 38.3% 23.3% 14.0% 8.1%
Houston 94.4% 1.5% 93.7% 83.1% 58.6% 37.4% 22.4% 13.0% 7.4%
Iowa St. 85.0% 2.8% 83.8% 68.3% 43.4% 24.6% 13.3% 7.0% 3.6%
Baylor 83.3% 3.8% 81.7% 67.0% 42.6% 24.0% 12.9% 6.8% 3.5%
Arizona 84.5% 3.2% 83.1% 67.6% 42.4% 24.0% 12.9% 6.6% 3.3%
Texas Tech 63.9% 4.4% 61.8% 42.7% 21.8% 10.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.1%
Cincinnati 59.2% 4.8% 56.8% 38.5% 18.8% 8.8% 4.1% 1.8% 0.9%
BYU 55.5% 4.7% 53.2% 35.5% 17.1% 8.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8%
Kansas St. 49.9% 4.8% 47.4% 31.0% 14.5% 6.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5%
TCU 38.6% 4.7% 36.2% 22.1% 9.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
West Virginia 30.8% 4.4% 28.7% 16.7% 7.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Central Florida 28.7% 4.3% 26.5% 15.2% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Arizona St. 27.0% 4.1% 24.8% 14.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah 23.0% 3.4% 21.2% 11.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado 25.2% 3.9% 23.1% 12.8% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 23.7% 4.0% 21.6% 12.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 13.3 27.7 29.9 17.9 6.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.6 17.7 30.2 27.5 13.7 3.9 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.7 19.8 29.2 24.8 12.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.6 0.4 3.7 14.5 28.4 29.7 16.9 5.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 93.3% 2.0 6.7 26.1 36.9 22.6 6.7 0.9 0.1
Final Four 74.1% 1.1 25.9 45.6 24.1 4.3 0.2
Final Game 50.0% 0.6 50.0 42.9 7.2
Champion 30.1% 0.3 69.9 30.1