Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#73
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#87
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.0% 5.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.7% 11.0% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 27.7% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.4% 27.1% 9.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 38.1% 39.0% 13.6%
.500 or above in Conference 26.3% 26.9% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.9% 16.3% 32.6%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 2.4%
First Round24.8% 25.5% 7.3%
Second Round14.2% 14.5% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 5.7% 1.6%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 12
Quad 24 - 47 - 16
Quad 33 - 110 - 17
Quad 44 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 315   Idaho St. W 77-58 96%    
  Nov 08, 2024 98   Santa Clara W 76-74 57%    
  Nov 10, 2024 6   @ Gonzaga L 71-83 13%    
  Nov 14, 2024 69   Grand Canyon L 73-74 48%    
  Nov 17, 2024 201   St. Thomas W 74-61 87%    
  Nov 20, 2024 345   Cal Poly W 79-57 98%    
  Nov 28, 2024 70   New Mexico L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 03, 2024 282   San Diego W 84-67 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 25   Florida L 77-81 35%    
  Dec 21, 2024 116   Massachusetts W 76-71 65%    
  Dec 31, 2024 32   @ BYU L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 79   Colorado W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 08, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 68-82 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 9   Baylor L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   Central Florida W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 65   @ West Virginia L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 79   @ Colorado L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 11   Arizona L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 39   Kansas St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 09, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 53   TCU W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 18, 2025 3   Houston L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 23, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 32   BYU L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 77   @ Utah L 73-76 41%    
  Mar 04, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 73-84 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 21   Texas Tech L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.7 15th
16th 0.6 1.9 3.2 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.7 16th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.2 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.3 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 66.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.2% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.1% 99.8% 7.4% 92.3% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 3.2% 99.2% 3.9% 95.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-8 4.6% 95.4% 1.4% 94.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.3%
11-9 6.2% 86.7% 1.1% 85.6% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 86.5%
10-10 7.9% 65.6% 0.7% 64.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 65.4%
9-11 9.2% 33.4% 0.7% 32.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 6.2 32.9%
8-12 10.3% 10.7% 0.1% 10.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.2 10.6%
7-13 11.1% 2.3% 0.1% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 2.2%
6-14 10.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.1%
5-15 10.3% 10.3
4-16 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-17 6.6% 6.6
2-18 4.2% 4.2
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 27.0% 0.8% 26.1% 7.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.0 26.4%