Preseason Rankings
Santa Clara
West Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#81
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 4.2% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 21.0% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.2% 14.1% 4.7%
Average Seed 9.2 8.9 9.8
.500 or above 74.3% 85.6% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 81.1% 67.2%
Conference Champion 5.8% 8.0% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four3.0% 4.2% 1.9%
First Round13.2% 19.0% 7.6%
Second Round6.2% 9.2% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Neutral) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 36 - 310 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   Saint Louis L 78-79 49%    
  Nov 08, 2024 73   Arizona St. L 74-76 43%    
  Nov 13, 2024 234   North Dakota St. W 79-67 87%    
  Nov 16, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 70-75 33%    
  Nov 19, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 78-68 80%    
  Nov 23, 2024 93   Stanford W 78-75 59%    
  Nov 28, 2024 53   TCU L 75-79 37%    
  Dec 03, 2024 99   @ McNeese St. L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 250   Fresno St. W 77-64 87%    
  Dec 14, 2024 92   Bradley L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 18, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 88-79 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 274   South Dakota W 85-71 89%    
  Dec 28, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 80-68 84%    
  Dec 30, 2024 82   @ San Francisco L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 02, 2025 282   @ San Diego W 82-73 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 123   Oregon St. W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 82   San Francisco W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 6   @ Gonzaga L 72-86 12%    
  Jan 23, 2025 91   Washington St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ Oregon St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 35   St. Mary's L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 314   Pacific W 84-67 92%    
  Feb 06, 2025 271   @ Portland W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 282   San Diego W 85-70 89%    
  Feb 11, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 141   Loyola Marymount W 77-69 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 91   @ Washington St. L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 6   Gonzaga L 75-83 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 314   @ Pacific W 81-70 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 4.4 2.3 0.4 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.3 6.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.5 1.2 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.5 11.6 13.1 13.1 12.1 10.0 6.9 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 81.4% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 44.6% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 16.0% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 54.4% 45.6% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 95.9% 38.5% 57.5% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.4%
16-2 2.0% 86.7% 34.2% 52.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 79.8%
15-3 4.3% 72.1% 25.2% 46.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 62.7%
14-4 6.9% 49.0% 18.1% 31.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 37.8%
13-5 10.0% 26.5% 9.8% 16.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.3 18.5%
12-6 12.1% 13.3% 6.2% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.5 7.6%
11-7 13.1% 5.8% 3.6% 2.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.3 2.3%
10-8 13.1% 2.8% 2.1% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.7%
9-9 11.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.1%
8-10 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 2.6% 2.6
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 6.1% 8.6% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.5 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.3 9.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 47.6 28.6 23.8