Preseason Rankings
McNeese St.
Southland
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#290
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.1% 53.3% 41.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 97.3% 98.7% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.5% 98.3%
Conference Champion 66.9% 70.8% 57.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round49.9% 53.1% 41.6%
Second Round11.7% 13.6% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.5% 1.8%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Neutral) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 5
Quad 416 - 222 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 178   South Dakota St. W 74-68 72%    
  Nov 11, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 71-87 8%    
  Nov 18, 2024 86   North Texas W 64-62 56%    
  Nov 22, 2024 193   Illinois St. W 69-62 74%    
  Dec 03, 2024 98   Santa Clara W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 22, 2024 156   @ Louisiana W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 346   New Orleans W 85-65 96%    
  Dec 30, 2024 292   SE Louisiana W 75-60 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-60 92%    
  Jan 06, 2025 333   @ Northwestern St. W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 215   Nicholls St. W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 13, 2025 357   @ Houston Christian W 84-67 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Lamar W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 20, 2025 164   Stephen F. Austin W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 284   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 27, 2025 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   @ Nicholls St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 03, 2025 329   Incarnate Word W 82-64 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Northwestern St. W 80-61 94%    
  Feb 10, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-57 97%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ New Orleans W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 17, 2025 292   @ SE Louisiana W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 24, 2025 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-68 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 283   @ Lamar W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 03, 2025 164   Stephen F. Austin W 75-67 75%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.4 12.4 17.0 17.9 11.1 66.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 5.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.0 6.1 8.9 12.4 16.0 17.9 17.9 11.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 11.1    11.1
19-1 100.0% 17.9    17.5 0.4
18-2 94.7% 17.0    14.8 2.2 0.0
17-3 77.7% 12.4    8.8 3.4 0.2
16-4 51.1% 6.4    3.3 2.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 21.5% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 66.9% 66.9 56.1 9.4 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 11.1% 79.6% 77.5% 2.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.3 9.4%
19-1 17.9% 69.4% 69.1% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 5.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 5.5 1.0%
18-2 17.9% 59.4% 59.4% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 0.0%
17-3 16.0% 49.4% 49.4% 13.4 0.0 1.3 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 8.1
16-4 12.4% 41.2% 41.2% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.1 7.3
15-5 8.9% 32.2% 32.2% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.3 6.1
14-6 6.1% 20.9% 20.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 4.8
13-7 4.0% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.4
12-8 2.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
11-9 1.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4
10-10 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.1% 49.8% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 4.6 13.3 13.8 8.9 4.4 1.2 49.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.3 6.0 8.5 21.1 23.9 20.7 9.8 3.9 1.7 2.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 78.5% 7.5 10.8 10.8 15.1 10.8 5.4 5.4 4.3 5.4 10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 52.9% 7.0 9.8 11.8 9.8 11.8 9.8