Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#164
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#78
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 24.2% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 83.5% 94.1% 80.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 95.7% 89.9%
Conference Champion 18.7% 26.4% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round17.3% 23.9% 15.2%
Second Round1.8% 3.1% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 106   @ Drake L 68-75 24%    
  Nov 16, 2024 134   @ Arkansas St. L 73-78 33%    
  Nov 21, 2024 303   Presbyterian W 77-67 82%    
  Nov 22, 2024 216   Monmouth W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 23, 2024 198   Youngstown St. W 76-71 66%    
  Nov 29, 2024 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 05, 2024 284   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 07, 2024 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 15, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 65-79 11%    
  Dec 31, 2024 184   @ Abilene Christian L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 329   Incarnate Word W 82-69 86%    
  Jan 06, 2025 357   Houston Christian W 86-69 93%    
  Jan 11, 2025 283   @ Lamar W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 13, 2025 292   SE Louisiana W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 215   @ Nicholls St. L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 20, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 333   Northwestern St. W 79-65 87%    
  Jan 27, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-61 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 283   Lamar W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 346   @ New Orleans W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 333   @ Northwestern St. W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 17, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 329   @ Incarnate Word W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 24, 2025 357   @ Houston Christian W 83-72 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   Nicholls St. W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 03, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 5.0 5.1 3.0 0.8 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.4 7.8 7.8 4.5 1.2 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 6.2 3.9 1.1 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.0 12.2 9.6 6.3 3.0 0.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 3.0    2.8 0.2
18-2 80.6% 5.1    3.9 1.2 0.0
17-3 52.2% 5.0    3.0 1.9 0.2
16-4 27.0% 3.3    1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 9.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 12.2 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 65.5% 64.2% 1.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.6%
19-1 3.0% 55.7% 55.3% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 1.0%
18-2 6.3% 43.5% 43.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 0.1%
17-3 9.6% 35.1% 35.1% 13.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 6.2
16-4 12.2% 26.8% 26.8% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.2 8.9
15-5 13.0% 19.5% 19.5% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 10.5
14-6 12.7% 13.8% 13.8% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 11.0
13-7 11.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 10.3
12-8 9.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.1
11-9 7.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.3
10-10 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.1
9-11 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.4% 1.4
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 2.6 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 5.6 20.8 8.3 8.3 13.9 20.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 43.5% 9.0 21.7 21.7