Preseason Rankings
Southland
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 McNeese St. 50.1%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 17 - 3 +5.5      +3.9 79 +1.7 123 64.7 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Stephen F. Austin 17.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 14 - 6 +0.1      -1.0 204 +1.1 137 72.1 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Nicholls St. 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -2.7      -0.9 202 -1.9 238 66.1 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.9      -2.4 253 -0.6 183 70.5 110 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Lamar 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -5.9      -2.8 265 -3.1 278 70.1 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 10 -6.0      -2.1 248 -3.9 309 76.5 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 SE Louisiana 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -6.7      -3.5 280 -3.2 280 63.3 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
329 Incarnate Word 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -9.9      -4.0 300 -5.8 350 73.4 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
333 Northwestern St. 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10.5      -5.4 328 -5.1 338 68.6 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 New Orleans 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 13 -12.0      -5.1 323 -6.8 358 76.1 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
355 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 24 6 - 14 -13.9      -8.3 356 -5.6 346 65.7 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
357 Houston Christian 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 14 -14.1      -6.0 336 -8.1 364 76.6 25 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.6 66.9 17.6 7.5 3.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.3 18.7 27.2 18.4 12.5 8.3 5.8 4.0 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
Nicholls St. 4.4 9.4 16.6 16.8 14.4 12.3 9.8 7.3 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.5
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.5 8.8 16.2 16.5 14.8 12.2 9.7 7.8 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6
Lamar 5.9 3.5 8.2 11.0 12.3 12.5 12.3 11.3 9.7 7.8 5.6 3.8 2.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.0 3.2 7.9 10.3 11.8 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.1 8.5 6.4 4.1 2.1
SE Louisiana 5.9 3.2 8.0 11.1 12.4 13.0 12.1 10.9 9.1 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.2
Incarnate Word 7.2 1.1 4.0 6.2 8.2 10.0 11.0 11.8 11.8 11.6 10.1 8.6 5.6
Northwestern St. 8.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 5.4 7.4 9.2 10.8 12.4 13.3 13.3 12.1 9.9
New Orleans 8.6 0.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.7 9.5 11.7 13.6 15.0 15.1 13.2
Texas A&M - Commerce 9.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.9 9.8 12.6 16.0 19.8 22.5
Houston Christian 9.4 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.4 12.3 15.5 19.3 22.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.0 6.1 8.9 12.4 16.0 17.9 17.9 11.1
Stephen F. Austin 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.0 12.2 9.6 6.3 3.0 0.8
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.3 7.0 9.0 10.6 11.6 11.6 10.8 9.5 7.0 4.8 2.5 1.2 0.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.2 7.4 9.1 10.7 11.5 11.8 10.8 8.9 6.9 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.3
Lamar 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.4 9.3 10.9 11.3 11.0 10.2 8.8 6.8 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.9 8.1 9.4 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.1 8.4 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.9 7.3 9.1 10.4 11.0 11.2 10.3 8.7 6.9 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Incarnate Word 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.5 7.3 9.2 10.4 11.3 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.5 5.5 7.9 9.9 11.2 11.5 11.4 10.0 8.5 6.6 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 7 - 13 0.7 2.2 4.7 7.6 9.7 11.5 12.0 11.6 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 6 - 14 1.6 4.7 8.0 11.0 12.8 13.1 12.3 10.5 8.4 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 6 - 14 1.8 4.9 8.1 10.9 12.4 12.8 11.8 10.2 8.5 6.4 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 66.9% 56.1 9.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 18.7% 12.2 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 9.4% 5.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.8% 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lamar 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 50.1% 49.8% 0.3% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 4.6 13.3 13.8 8.9 4.4 1.2 49.9 0.6%
Stephen F. Austin 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 2.6 82.3 0.0%
Nicholls St. 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.5 90.6 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.6 1.4 91.1 0.0%
Lamar 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 95.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 96.1 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 96.6 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.0 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
New Orleans 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 50.1% 0.5% 49.9% 11.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.7% 1.0% 17.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 9.4% 0.6% 9.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.9% 0.5% 8.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 4.1% 1.0% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 0.6% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 96.8 0.2
2nd Round 15.5% 0.2 84.5 15.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0