Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#284
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.5#26
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#248
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#309
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 8.2% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 40.9% 72.9% 39.5%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 76.3% 56.1%
Conference Champion 3.2% 7.4% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 1.2% 4.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round3.6% 8.0% 3.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 8
Quad 411 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 51   @ Nebraska L 69-87 4%    
  Nov 06, 2024 13   @ Creighton L 65-88 1%    
  Nov 15, 2024 280   Charleston Southern L 75-76 49%    
  Nov 18, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 25, 2024 335   Le Moyne W 79-71 75%    
  Dec 05, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin L 76-79 39%    
  Dec 07, 2024 283   Lamar W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 18, 2024 218   Southern Utah L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 346   @ New Orleans W 83-80 60%    
  Jan 06, 2025 292   @ SE Louisiana L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 13, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-68 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 357   @ Houston Christian W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 20, 2025 329   @ Incarnate Word W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   McNeese St. L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 27, 2025 215   Nicholls St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 03, 2025 333   @ Northwestern St. W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 283   @ Lamar L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 10, 2025 164   @ Stephen F. Austin L 73-82 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 357   Houston Christian W 87-76 82%    
  Feb 17, 2025 329   Incarnate Word W 83-76 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   @ Nicholls St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 68-82 12%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   New Orleans W 86-77 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 292   SE Louisiana W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.9 8.1 9.4 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.1 8.4 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 87.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 57.2% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 29.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 51.4% 51.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 36.8% 36.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 39.7% 39.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.6% 28.4% 28.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-4 2.9% 22.2% 22.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2
15-5 4.6% 16.0% 16.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.9
14-6 6.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.7
13-7 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.9
12-8 10.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.7
11-9 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.8
10-10 11.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.1
9-11 10.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 8.1% 8.1
6-14 5.9% 5.9
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%