Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#329
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.4#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#300
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#350
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 26.9% 52.1% 23.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.5% 57.4% 37.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 4.0% 10.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.8% 2.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 410 - 1011 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   @ California Baptist L 63-76 11%    
  Nov 12, 2024 344   Prairie View W 80-75 67%    
  Nov 16, 2024 358   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-80 55%    
  Nov 22, 2024 286   @ Northern Arizona L 73-80 26%    
  Nov 25, 2024 223   @ South Alabama L 70-80 19%    
  Nov 27, 2024 294   Western Illinois L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 05, 2024 333   Northwestern St. W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 07, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 10, 2024 4   @ Duke L 58-89 0.3%   
  Jan 04, 2025 164   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-82 14%    
  Jan 06, 2025 283   @ Lamar L 72-79 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   @ Houston Christian W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 13, 2025 215   Nicholls St. L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-77 38%    
  Jan 20, 2025 284   UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   @ SE Louisiana L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 27, 2025 346   @ New Orleans L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 357   Houston Christian W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 03, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 64-82 6%    
  Feb 08, 2025 292   SE Louisiana L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 10, 2025 346   New Orleans W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-80 21%    
  Feb 17, 2025 284   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 76-83 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 164   Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 29%    
  Feb 24, 2025 283   Lamar L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 03, 2025 333   Northwestern St. W 77-73 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.5 7.3 9.2 10.4 11.3 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 91.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
18-2 74.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 52.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 23.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
15-5 7.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 17.2% 17.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 33.6% 33.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.6% 19.0% 19.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.3% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
15-5 2.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
14-6 3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5
13-7 5.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
12-8 7.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.0
11-9 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.9
10-10 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
9-11 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
8-12 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
7-13 10.4% 10.4
6-14 9.2% 9.2
5-15 7.3% 7.3
4-16 5.5% 5.5
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%