Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#244
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.5% 6.6% 1.1%
#1 Seed 24.5% 24.6% 6.6%
Top 2 Seed 43.1% 43.4% 14.1%
Top 4 Seed 64.7% 64.9% 30.2%
Top 6 Seed 77.3% 77.6% 44.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.3% 93.4% 73.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.2% 90.4% 69.4%
Average Seed 3.7 3.6 5.6
.500 or above 98.0% 98.0% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 96.1% 87.4%
Conference Champion 42.0% 42.2% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 3.6%
First Round92.6% 92.7% 71.6%
Second Round79.7% 79.9% 52.2%
Sweet Sixteen55.0% 55.2% 27.7%
Elite Eight34.7% 34.9% 17.2%
Final Four20.8% 20.9% 7.5%
Championship Game12.0% 12.1% 1.9%
National Champion6.8% 6.8% 1.1%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 27 - 115 - 7
Quad 36 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 253   Maine W 79-53 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 321   Army W 79-49 99.7%   
  Nov 12, 2024 16   Kentucky W 81-76 66%    
  Nov 16, 2024 153   Wofford W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 22, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Kansas L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 29, 2024 127   Seattle W 78-59 95%    
  Dec 04, 2024 10   Auburn W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 08, 2024 50   @ Louisville W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 10, 2024 329   Incarnate Word W 89-58 99.7%   
  Dec 17, 2024 96   George Mason W 74-59 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 80   @ Georgia Tech W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 31, 2024 74   Virginia Tech W 78-64 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 78   @ SMU W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 07, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 66   Notre Dame W 73-60 86%    
  Jan 14, 2025 36   Miami (FL) W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 114   @ Boston College W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   @ Wake Forest W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 27, 2025 49   North Carolina St. W 77-65 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 7   North Carolina W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 56   @ Syracuse W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 43   @ Clemson W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 109   California W 81-63 93%    
  Feb 15, 2025 93   Stanford W 81-66 89%    
  Feb 17, 2025 57   @ Virginia W 64-58 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 22   Illinois W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 25, 2025 36   @ Miami (FL) W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 83   Florida St. W 81-67 88%    
  Mar 03, 2025 41   Wake Forest W 78-67 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 74-75 46%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.3 10.5 11.2 8.0 3.5 42.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 6.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.6 1.4 0.2 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.2 6.2 8.1 10.7 12.5 14.0 14.0 11.9 8.0 3.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
19-1 99.7% 8.0    7.7 0.3
18-2 93.5% 11.2    9.4 1.7 0.0
17-3 74.8% 10.5    7.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 44.7% 6.3    2.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.4% 2.3    0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 42.0% 42.0 30.9 8.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.5% 100.0% 69.4% 30.6% 1.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.0% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 1.3 6.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.9% 100.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.5 7.1 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.0% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 2.0 5.2 5.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.0% 100.0% 33.5% 66.4% 2.8 2.4 4.3 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.5% 99.8% 26.0% 73.8% 3.8 0.6 2.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 10.7% 99.1% 20.2% 78.9% 5.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
13-7 8.1% 96.4% 14.1% 82.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.8%
12-8 6.2% 88.7% 8.8% 79.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 87.6%
11-9 4.2% 77.2% 6.2% 71.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 75.7%
10-10 2.9% 55.3% 3.6% 51.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 53.6%
9-11 1.8% 26.4% 2.5% 23.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 24.5%
8-12 1.1% 9.5% 1.8% 7.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 7.8%
7-13 0.6% 3.0% 0.4% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 93.3% 31.3% 62.0% 3.7 24.5 18.6 12.0 9.5 7.2 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 90.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.6 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.4 10.6