Preseason Rankings
SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#78
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#178
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.5% 3.8% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 7.5% 8.2% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 28.0% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.8% 26.5% 10.6%
Average Seed 8.0 7.9 8.8
.500 or above 64.3% 67.5% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 47.5% 28.3%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.6% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 7.0% 15.7%
First Four4.4% 4.6% 2.7%
First Round23.9% 25.6% 9.9%
Second Round12.9% 13.9% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 7
Quad 24 - 57 - 12
Quad 35 - 212 - 14
Quad 46 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 78-65 89%    
  Nov 07, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 83-59 99%    
  Nov 11, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro W 75-64 85%    
  Nov 15, 2024 72   @ Butler L 72-75 38%    
  Nov 18, 2024 344   Prairie View W 86-64 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 71-72 47%    
  Nov 26, 2024 163   California Baptist W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 03, 2024 293   Alabama St. W 78-61 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 57   Virginia W 62-61 54%    
  Dec 14, 2024 54   LSU L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 21, 2024 114   @ Boston College W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 29, 2024 195   Longwood W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 4   Duke L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 07, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 70-82 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 80   Georgia Tech W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 57   @ Virginia L 59-64 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 36   @ Miami (FL) L 71-78 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   Louisville W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   @ North Carolina St. L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   California W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 93   Stanford W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 74   @ Virginia Tech L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 41   Wake Forest L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 66   @ Notre Dame L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   Clemson W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 26, 2025 109   @ California W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 93   @ Stanford L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   Syracuse W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 07, 2025 83   @ Florida St. L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.3 0.3 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.7 0.3 6.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 17th
18th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6 18th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.1 9.4 10.5 10.6 10.1 9.2 8.1 6.4 4.8 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 94.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 87.8% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 66.4% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 32.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 10.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 99.8% 17.7% 82.1% 3.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 2.0% 99.3% 13.1% 86.2% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 3.1% 96.9% 10.8% 86.1% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.5%
14-6 4.8% 90.4% 7.0% 83.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 89.6%
13-7 6.4% 77.0% 3.7% 73.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.5 76.1%
12-8 8.1% 55.9% 1.9% 54.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.1 3.6 55.0%
11-9 9.2% 35.5% 1.2% 34.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.9 34.7%
10-10 10.1% 17.6% 0.8% 16.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.3 16.9%
9-11 10.6% 5.3% 0.3% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.1 5.0%
8-12 10.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.8%
7-13 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0%
6-14 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 8.1
5-15 6.3% 6.3
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 26.3% 1.9% 24.3% 8.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 73.7 24.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 79.2 20.8