Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#33
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#209
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 6.0% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 15.4% 15.5% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 26.3% 26.4% 4.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.2% 53.3% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.2% 51.4% 18.5%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 8.0
.500 or above 76.4% 76.6% 36.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 52.3% 23.7%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 7.1% 26.2%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 3.6%
First Round51.2% 51.4% 16.4%
Second Round34.0% 34.1% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 16.2% 2.7%
Elite Eight7.3% 7.4% 0.5%
Final Four3.2% 3.2% 0.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   West Georgia W 85-58 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 81-64 94%    
  Nov 12, 2024 292   SE Louisiana W 78-57 97%    
  Nov 17, 2024 77   Utah W 75-71 64%    
  Nov 22, 2024 78   @ SMU W 72-71 53%    
  Nov 28, 2024 95   UNLV W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 04, 2024 52   Pittsburgh W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 08, 2024 344   Prairie View W 86-60 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 99   McNeese St. W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 17, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 75-58 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 42   @ Memphis L 75-77 42%    
  Dec 30, 2024 298   Bethune-Cookman W 83-62 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 64   South Carolina W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 07, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   Kentucky W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 10   @ Auburn L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 40   Mississippi W 74-70 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 14   @ Tennessee L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 64   @ South Carolina L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 5   Alabama L 77-81 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 58   Missouri W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 61   @ Georgia L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 11, 2025 25   Florida W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 40   @ Mississippi L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 55   @ Oklahoma L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 74-84 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   LSU W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   Texas W 71-70 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   @ Arkansas L 72-77 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.2 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.3 0.1 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.2 11.4 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.9% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 68.4% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 35.6% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.7% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.8% 99.8% 12.6% 87.2% 4.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 7.5% 99.4% 7.3% 92.1% 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 9.2% 96.3% 4.7% 91.6% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.1%
10-8 10.8% 86.9% 2.8% 84.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.4 86.5%
9-9 11.4% 69.0% 1.6% 67.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 68.5%
8-10 11.2% 39.5% 0.8% 38.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.8 39.1%
7-11 10.5% 14.4% 0.3% 14.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.0 14.2%
6-12 8.7% 3.9% 0.2% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.4 3.7%
5-13 6.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.3%
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 53.2% 4.0% 49.2% 6.4 2.4 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.1 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 46.8 51.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0