Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.2#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.8% 4.7% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 9.2% 11.2% 3.7%
Top 4 Seed 22.8% 26.7% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 37.1% 42.2% 23.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.4% 68.2% 46.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.3% 66.1% 44.7%
Average Seed 5.9 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 80.4% 86.1% 64.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 64.8% 48.1%
Conference Champion 6.5% 7.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 3.4% 8.1%
First Four4.7% 4.6% 5.0%
First Round60.1% 65.9% 44.0%
Second Round41.1% 45.9% 27.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 23.8% 12.3%
Elite Eight9.7% 11.3% 5.4%
Final Four4.5% 5.3% 2.4%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: South Florida (Neutral) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   South Florida W 81-74 74%    
  Nov 07, 2024 222   Jacksonville W 84-66 95%    
  Nov 11, 2024 273   Grambling St. W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 15, 2024 83   @ Florida St. W 83-81 57%    
  Nov 19, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 90-62 99%    
  Nov 22, 2024 140   Southern Illinois W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 28, 2024 41   Wake Forest W 80-79 55%    
  Dec 04, 2024 57   Virginia W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 14, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 81-77 65%    
  Dec 17, 2024 7   North Carolina L 80-84 35%    
  Dec 21, 2024 254   North Florida W 89-69 96%    
  Dec 29, 2024 290   Stetson W 88-66 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 84-88 36%    
  Jan 07, 2025 14   Tennessee W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 15   @ Arkansas L 80-85 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 58   Missouri W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 17   Texas W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 22, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 61   Georgia W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 14   @ Tennessee L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 89   Vanderbilt W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 10   @ Auburn L 78-85 28%    
  Feb 11, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 64   South Carolina W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 54   @ LSU L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 25, 2025 61   @ Georgia W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 78-76 58%    
  Mar 05, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 83-92 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 40   Mississippi W 81-77 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.0 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.2 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.0 0.2 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.4 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.2 7.4 9.4 10.7 11.5 11.7 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 96.4% 0.6    0.6 0.1
16-2 85.8% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.6% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.8% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.0% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.7 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.2% 99.9% 13.4% 86.5% 3.6 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 9.2% 99.3% 9.3% 90.0% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 10.5% 96.5% 5.4% 91.1% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.3%
10-8 11.7% 89.6% 3.0% 86.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 89.3%
9-9 11.5% 73.9% 1.5% 72.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 3.0 73.5%
8-10 10.7% 44.5% 0.5% 44.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.9 44.2%
7-11 9.4% 16.9% 0.3% 16.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.8 16.6%
6-12 7.4% 4.9% 0.2% 4.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 4.6%
5-13 5.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.5%
4-14 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.5 0.1%
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.4% 5.5% 57.0% 5.9 3.8 5.4 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 4.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 37.6 60.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0