Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#254
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#194
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 13.6% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 35.8% 65.4% 33.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 79.4% 61.4%
Conference Champion 9.6% 17.7% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 1.6% 5.0%
First Four1.9% 1.1% 1.9%
First Round7.1% 13.0% 6.7%
Second Round0.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 64   @ South Carolina L 60-76 6%    
  Nov 07, 2024 280   Charleston Southern W 74-70 65%    
  Nov 10, 2024 80   @ Georgia Tech L 66-81 8%    
  Nov 12, 2024 61   @ Georgia L 66-82 7%    
  Nov 18, 2024 186   UNC Asheville L 74-75 47%    
  Nov 29, 2024 316   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 01, 2024 51   @ Nebraska L 66-83 6%    
  Dec 07, 2024 209   @ Georgia Southern L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 14, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 17, 2024 186   @ UNC Asheville L 71-78 28%    
  Dec 21, 2024 25   @ Florida L 69-89 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 281   Austin Peay W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   Lipscomb L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 255   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 299   @ Bellarmine L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   North Alabama W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 289   @ Queens L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 351   @ West Georgia W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 290   Stetson W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 222   @ Jacksonville L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 299   Bellarmine W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 206   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 231   @ North Alabama L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 290   @ Stetson L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 222   Jacksonville W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 24, 2025 206   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 255   Eastern Kentucky W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.1 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.6 10.6 9.6 7.3 5.5 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.5% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 91.3% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 74.8% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.6% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.1% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 50.6% 50.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 48.7% 48.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 33.6% 33.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-3 3.8% 29.7% 29.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.6
14-4 5.5% 21.4% 21.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 4.4
13-5 7.3% 17.1% 17.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 6.1
12-6 9.6% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 8.5
11-7 10.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 9.7
10-8 11.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.0
9-9 11.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.8
8-10 10.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
7-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
5-13 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%