Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#281
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#334
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#223
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#320
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 11.8% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 27.0% 56.5% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 75.8% 55.6%
Conference Champion 7.3% 16.4% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 2.4% 6.6%
First Four1.8% 1.4% 1.9%
First Round5.4% 11.0% 5.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 410 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 72   @ Butler L 62-79 6%    
  Nov 11, 2024 147   Chattanooga L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 17, 2024 14   @ Tennessee L 58-81 2%    
  Nov 20, 2024 224   @ Morehead St. L 62-68 31%    
  Nov 26, 2024 204   Georgia St. L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 27, 2024 145   Texas Arlington L 69-76 28%    
  Nov 30, 2024 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-72 23%    
  Dec 08, 2024 138   @ Samford L 71-81 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 140   Southern Illinois L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 18, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 65-76 17%    
  Dec 21, 2024 89   @ Vanderbilt L 61-77 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 254   @ North Florida L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 222   @ Jacksonville L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 10, 2025 351   West Georgia W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 289   Queens W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 255   Eastern Kentucky W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 158   @ Lipscomb L 69-78 23%    
  Jan 23, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 231   @ North Alabama L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 299   Bellarmine W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 255   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 231   North Alabama W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 206   Florida Gulf Coast L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 290   Stetson W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 299   @ Bellarmine L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 289   @ Queens L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 24, 2025 158   Lipscomb L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 351   @ West Georgia W 72-68 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.1 7.9 9.8 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 93.7% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.3% 2.1    1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.3% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.0% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 52.6% 52.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 43.9% 43.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 34.8% 34.8% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 2.8% 27.4% 27.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.1
14-4 4.5% 20.7% 20.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.5
13-5 6.4% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 5.4
12-6 8.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 7.5
11-7 10.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.3
10-8 11.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.8
9-9 11.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.1
8-10 11.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.0
7-11 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-12 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%