Preseason Rankings
Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#224
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.4#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#271
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 40.6% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 75.3% 93.6% 73.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 96.6% 88.3%
Conference Champion 37.7% 55.6% 36.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four6.3% 3.3% 6.5%
First Round23.9% 39.0% 22.7%
Second Round1.3% 3.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 416 - 718 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Louisville L 62-78 7%    
  Nov 08, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 57-75 5%    
  Nov 14, 2024 147   @ Chattanooga L 64-71 27%    
  Nov 20, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 68-62 69%    
  Nov 27, 2024 343   NJIT W 70-61 77%    
  Nov 29, 2024 213   @ Cleveland St. L 65-68 38%    
  Dec 04, 2024 194   @ Marshall L 67-72 35%    
  Dec 07, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 63-72 22%    
  Dec 19, 2024 323   Tennessee Martin W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 309   Tennessee St. W 71-63 74%    
  Dec 31, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 336   @ Tennessee Tech W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 267   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 327   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 294   Western Illinois W 66-59 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 23, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 316   @ SIU Edwardsville W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 28, 2025 328   Southern Indiana W 72-62 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   Tennessee Tech W 70-59 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 327   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-62 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Western Illinois W 66-59 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 316   SIU Edwardsville W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 326   Eastern Illinois W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 309   @ Tennessee St. W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 323   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-70 60%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.0 7.9 8.8 7.2 4.4 1.7 37.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.8 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.1 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.6 7.4 8.7 10.2 11.4 11.4 11.1 9.8 7.3 4.4 1.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 100.0% 4.4    4.3 0.1
18-2 98.1% 7.2    6.7 0.5 0.0
17-3 90.2% 8.8    7.4 1.3 0.0
16-4 71.6% 7.9    5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 43.9% 5.0    2.5 2.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 19.5% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 28.8 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 70.5% 70.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
19-1 4.4% 65.3% 65.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.5
18-2 7.3% 56.0% 56.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.3 3.2
17-3 9.8% 47.9% 47.9% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.0 5.1
16-4 11.1% 40.1% 40.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 6.6
15-5 11.4% 33.2% 33.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 7.6
14-6 11.4% 24.1% 24.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 8.6
13-7 10.2% 16.6% 16.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 8.5
12-8 8.7% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 7.8
11-9 7.4% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 7.0
10-10 5.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.4
9-11 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1
8-12 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-13 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.7 7.7 11.1 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.1 13.8 17.2 34.5 17.2 17.2