Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#309
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#132
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 17.6% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 40.6% 70.4% 39.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 78.4% 59.6%
Conference Champion 10.7% 19.8% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 1.9% 7.4%
First Four5.1% 6.5% 5.1%
First Round6.9% 14.2% 6.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 412 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 84   @ Colorado St. L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 10, 2024 177   @ Wyoming L 66-76 18%    
  Nov 13, 2024 249   Howard L 71-75 37%    
  Nov 16, 2024 338   Alabama A&M W 75-69 72%    
  Nov 25, 2024 147   @ Chattanooga L 66-78 15%    
  Nov 26, 2024 169   Bryant L 74-81 26%    
  Dec 01, 2024 186   UNC Asheville L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 10, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 72-86 11%    
  Dec 19, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 21, 2024 224   @ Morehead St. L 63-71 26%    
  Jan 02, 2025 327   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 294   @ Western Illinois L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 316   SIU Edwardsville W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 326   Eastern Illinois W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 21, 2025 323   Tennessee Martin W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 23, 2025 336   Tennessee Tech W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 267   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 294   Western Illinois W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 316   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 323   @ Tennessee Martin L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 224   Morehead St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 328   Southern Indiana W 75-70 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.6 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 6.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 10.2 9.7 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.9% 1.3    1.2 0.1
17-3 86.1% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 66.6% 2.8    1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.0% 2.3    1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 15.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 75.6% 75.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 54.0% 54.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.3% 48.2% 48.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7
17-3 2.5% 39.4% 39.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.5
16-4 4.1% 33.3% 33.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8
15-5 5.9% 27.7% 27.7% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.3
14-6 7.4% 21.3% 21.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.8
13-7 8.7% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 7.6
12-8 9.7% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.8
11-9 10.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.4 9.8
10-10 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.8
9-11 9.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.5
8-12 8.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.1
7-13 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-14 5.5% 5.5
5-15 3.9% 3.9
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 7.1 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%