Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace85.6#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 21.0% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.0 11.6 12.7
.500 or above 72.7% 82.3% 60.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 80.8% 68.0%
Conference Champion 20.7% 25.2% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.4% 5.0%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round17.0% 20.5% 12.5%
Second Round4.2% 5.7% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   Wichita St. W 81-79 56%    
  Nov 09, 2024 69   @ Grand Canyon L 76-84 23%    
  Nov 17, 2024 158   Lipscomb W 87-81 71%    
  Nov 20, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 87-72 91%    
  Nov 26, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 82-95 12%    
  Nov 30, 2024 194   Marshall W 87-79 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 228   @ Evansville W 81-77 62%    
  Dec 10, 2024 309   Tennessee St. W 86-72 89%    
  Dec 14, 2024 136   Murray St. W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 17, 2024 127   Seattle W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 29, 2024 30   @ Michigan L 75-86 16%    
  Jan 02, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 86-80 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 93-86 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 30, 2025 152   UTEP W 83-77 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 90-89 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 152   @ UTEP L 79-80 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 06, 2025 275   Florida International W 89-77 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 110   Liberty W 77-74 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 5.2 5.2 3.8 2.0 0.6 20.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 5.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.3 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.7 6.1 7.9 9.6 11.0 11.9 11.3 10.0 8.7 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 96.9% 3.8    3.4 0.4
15-3 83.8% 5.2    4.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 59.7% 5.2    2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 29.3% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
12-6 7.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.7% 20.7 14.0 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 86.0% 62.9% 23.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.2%
17-1 2.0% 68.1% 53.2% 14.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 31.8%
16-2 4.0% 52.3% 44.5% 7.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 14.0%
15-3 6.2% 42.4% 38.9% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.6 5.8%
14-4 8.7% 30.2% 29.4% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 1.0%
13-5 10.0% 24.5% 24.3% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.6 0.2%
12-6 11.3% 17.3% 17.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 9.4
11-7 11.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.4
10-8 11.0% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.0
9-9 9.6% 7.1% 7.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.9
8-10 7.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
7-11 6.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
6-12 4.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
5-13 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.3% 16.3% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.7 5.4 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 82.7 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 9.8 19.6 39.2 11.8 19.6