Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Louisiana Tech 19.7%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 11 - 7 +3.9      +1.2 139 +2.8 95 64.6 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 Liberty 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 11 - 7 +3.8      +1.7 128 +2.1 110 62.6 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Western Kentucky 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +3.3      +1.7 126 +1.6 127 85.6 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 Sam Houston St. 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.8      +0.7 150 +2.1 111 68.5 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 UTEP 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +0.5      -1.9 240 +2.4 103 73.0 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 New Mexico St. 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 +0.2      -0.4 182 +0.5 150 65.5 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Kennesaw St. 6.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -0.6      +1.6 131 -2.2 249 82.7 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Middle Tennessee 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -1.6      -2.2 249 +0.6 148 64.1 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Jacksonville St. 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 11 -2.0      -2.1 247 0.0 169 62.8 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Florida International 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -5.4      -2.5 257 -2.9 272 74.4 48 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Louisiana Tech 3.6 24.6 17.7 14.0 11.6 9.5 7.8 5.9 4.5 2.9 1.6
Liberty 3.7 23.1 17.4 14.3 11.9 9.4 7.8 6.2 5.0 3.4 1.6
Western Kentucky 3.9 20.7 16.5 14.0 12.6 10.3 8.3 6.9 5.1 3.6 2.0
Sam Houston St. 4.1 18.5 15.8 14.0 12.1 10.5 9.1 7.7 5.9 4.2 2.3
UTEP 5.2 9.9 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.6 9.9 8.3 5.9
New Mexico St. 5.4 8.8 9.8 10.5 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.4 10.3 9.1 6.2
Kennesaw St. 5.7 6.8 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.7 10.6 8.3
Middle Tennessee 6.2 4.9 6.6 7.9 9.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 12.9 12.8 11.2
Jacksonville St. 6.4 4.2 5.9 7.4 8.8 9.9 11.0 12.2 13.6 14.3 12.7
Florida International 7.8 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.5 5.9 8.2 10.8 14.5 20.0 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Louisiana Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.4 11.3 11.5 11.0 9.7 7.6 4.9 2.6 0.8
Liberty 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.7 11.4 11.5 11.0 9.3 7.1 4.5 2.3 0.8
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.7 6.1 7.9 9.6 11.0 11.9 11.3 10.0 8.7 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.6
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.2 11.1 9.8 8.0 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.4
UTEP 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.7 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.6 8.2 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.1
New Mexico St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.7 8.8 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Kennesaw St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.9 6.1 8.0 9.6 10.7 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.2 6.6 4.9 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1
Middle Tennessee 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.4 7.6 9.1 10.5 11.1 11.3 10.5 8.7 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.8 5.9 8.5 9.8 10.9 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.3 6.5 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 2.3 5.8 9.2 11.9 12.5 12.8 11.5 10.0 8.1 5.9 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 24.6% 17.1 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
Liberty 23.1% 15.9 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 20.7% 14.0 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 18.5% 12.4 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 9.9% 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 8.8% 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 6.8% 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 4.9% 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 4.2% 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 19.7% 18.7% 1.0% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.9 6.5 4.3 1.9 1.0 0.5 80.3 1.3%
Liberty 18.1% 17.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.2 5.8 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 81.9 0.7%
Western Kentucky 17.3% 16.3% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.7 5.4 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 82.7 1.2%
Sam Houston St. 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.1 4.8 3.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 84.8 1.0%
UTEP 8.9% 8.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 91.1 0.3%
New Mexico St. 7.9% 7.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 92.1 0.3%
Kennesaw St. 6.4% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 93.6 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 95.1 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 95.6 0.1%
Florida International 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Louisiana Tech 19.7% 0.8% 19.4% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 18.1% 0.6% 17.9% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.3% 0.7% 17.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 15.2% 0.8% 14.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 8.9% 0.4% 8.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 7.9% 0.5% 7.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.4% 0.5% 6.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 4.9% 0.5% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 4.4% 0.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.2 0.1
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 95.7 3.2 0.0
2nd Round 21.4% 0.2 78.6 21.1 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0