Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#309
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.9
.500 or above 31.3% 47.6% 22.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 51.3% 33.4%
Conference Champion 4.9% 7.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 10.7% 20.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round4.7% 7.0% 3.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 46 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 184   @ Abilene Christian L 66-70 36%    
  Nov 13, 2024 228   Evansville W 70-65 67%    
  Nov 16, 2024 136   Murray St. L 64-65 49%    
  Nov 21, 2024 121   Ohio L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 01, 2024 88   @ UAB L 64-76 15%    
  Dec 07, 2024 144   @ Belmont L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 16, 2024 163   California Baptist W 64-63 54%    
  Dec 19, 2024 158   Lipscomb W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 23, 2024 14   @ Tennessee L 58-77 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 09, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-69 24%    
  Jan 30, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 152   UTEP W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-65 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 20, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. L 63-68 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 152   @ UTEP L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 110   Liberty L 63-65 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 275   Florida International W 74-67 71%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.1 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 11.2 10th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.4 7.6 9.1 10.5 11.1 11.3 10.5 8.7 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.3% 0.6    0.6 0.1
15-3 82.1% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.9% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 80.5% 56.3% 24.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.3%
17-1 0.2% 65.4% 51.9% 13.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.2%
16-2 0.6% 43.4% 37.4% 5.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 9.5%
15-3 1.3% 32.5% 30.1% 2.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.5%
14-4 2.3% 24.7% 24.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.6%
13-5 3.8% 17.2% 17.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.1
12-6 5.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8
11-7 6.9% 8.7% 8.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.3
10-8 8.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.2
9-9 10.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.0
8-10 11.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.0
7-11 11.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.9
6-12 10.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
4-14 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 95.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%