Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#136
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#332
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 14.1% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 11.9 13.0
.500 or above 58.3% 80.3% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 75.3% 57.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 16.1% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.2% 6.5%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round8.1% 13.8% 7.1%
Second Round1.6% 3.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 48 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 62-73 15%    
  Nov 16, 2024 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 65-64 51%    
  Nov 20, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-55 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 151   Utah Valley W 68-64 64%    
  Nov 25, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 03, 2024 228   Evansville W 72-64 75%    
  Dec 08, 2024 327   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-62 89%    
  Dec 14, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 18, 2024 132   @ Indiana St. L 70-74 38%    
  Dec 22, 2024 51   Nebraska L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 02, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 05, 2025 106   @ Drake L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 08, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 11, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 15, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 92   Bradley L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 22, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 144   Belmont W 74-70 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 228   @ Evansville W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 106   Drake L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 11, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 140   Southern Illinois W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 25, 2025 132   Indiana St. W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 02, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 71-73 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.9 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 6.7 8.4 9.8 10.2 10.2 9.9 8.7 7.2 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.4% 1.2    1.2 0.1
17-3 83.1% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 59.2% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.3% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 77.8% 49.8% 28.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.9%
19-1 0.5% 61.9% 46.6% 15.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 28.7%
18-2 1.3% 45.6% 40.4% 5.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.8%
17-3 2.7% 34.3% 32.2% 2.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.1%
16-4 4.0% 27.2% 26.7% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.7%
15-5 5.5% 20.1% 20.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4
14-6 7.2% 16.5% 16.5% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.0
13-7 8.7% 11.7% 11.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.6
12-8 9.9% 8.4% 8.4% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.0
11-9 10.2% 4.5% 4.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-10 10.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9
9-11 9.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-12 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
6-14 5.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.3% 8.0% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 91.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 47.6 23.8 23.8 4.8