Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#134
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.5
.500 or above 30.2% 44.8% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 45.7% 28.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 16.5% 11.1% 20.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round3.1% 4.8% 2.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 46 - 311 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 113   Yale L 67-69 41%    
  Nov 12, 2024 60   @ Northwestern L 60-74 10%    
  Nov 21, 2024 107   James Madison L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 04, 2024 112   Northern Iowa L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 08, 2024 313   Dartmouth W 71-62 79%    
  Dec 15, 2024 267   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 20, 2024 127   @ Seattle L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 29, 2024 193   @ Illinois St. L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 01, 2025 106   Drake L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 07, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 92   Bradley L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 136   Murray St. L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2025 228   @ Evansville L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   Southern Illinois L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 132   Indiana St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 05, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 16, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 106   @ Drake L 66-76 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 228   Evansville W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 66-75 24%    
  Mar 02, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 74-69 65%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 11.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 11.1 12th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.0 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 84.2% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 61.5% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.0% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 89.7% 64.1% 25.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4%
19-1 0.1% 48.0% 35.8% 12.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.1%
18-2 0.2% 44.4% 41.1% 3.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7%
17-3 0.7% 31.1% 27.2% 3.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.3%
16-4 1.4% 24.0% 23.4% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.8%
15-5 2.3% 18.6% 18.2% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.4%
14-6 3.2% 15.0% 15.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-7 4.6% 9.7% 9.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2
12-8 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
11-9 7.6% 3.7% 3.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
10-10 9.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
9-11 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9
8-12 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.4
6-14 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-15 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.4
4-16 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-17 4.6% 4.6
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 96.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%