Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#106
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#155
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 20.6% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 2.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.6
.500 or above 81.1% 86.0% 65.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 86.0% 73.9%
Conference Champion 24.3% 27.3% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.1% 3.4%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round18.1% 20.2% 11.6%
Second Round5.2% 6.1% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 8
Quad 49 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin W 75-68 76%    
  Nov 21, 2024 36   Miami (FL) L 70-77 27%    
  Nov 30, 2024 209   Georgia Southern W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 04, 2024 242   @ Valparaiso W 74-69 69%    
  Dec 17, 2024 39   @ Kansas St. L 65-75 20%    
  Dec 21, 2024 310   Green Bay W 74-59 90%    
  Dec 29, 2024 144   Belmont W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 01, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 05, 2025 136   Murray St. W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 08, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 228   Evansville W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 22, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 140   Southern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 136   @ Murray St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   Indiana St. W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 92   Bradley W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 23, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 228   @ Evansville W 74-69 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 75-65 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 5.5 6.0 4.6 2.5 0.9 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 5.5 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 8.8 10.1 10.9 11.1 10.5 9.2 7.1 4.8 2.5 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.9% 2.5    2.5 0.0
18-2 96.2% 4.6    4.2 0.4 0.0
17-3 84.0% 6.0    4.7 1.3 0.1
16-4 59.8% 5.5    3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 32.6% 3.4    1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-6 11.0% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 17.3 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 85.4% 61.9% 23.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.7%
19-1 2.5% 71.9% 54.6% 17.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 38.2%
18-2 4.8% 52.2% 44.3% 8.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 14.3%
17-3 7.1% 40.2% 37.4% 2.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 4.5%
16-4 9.2% 29.9% 29.3% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.8%
15-5 10.5% 23.5% 23.3% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.2%
14-6 11.1% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.1 0.0%
13-7 10.9% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.4
12-8 10.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2
11-9 8.8% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.3
10-10 7.2% 3.6% 3.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
9-11 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-12 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.5% 17.2% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 3.1 6.1 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 81.5 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 12.5 33.6 25.4 13.9 7.5 5.4 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 65.5% 6.1 27.6 17.2 17.2 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 13.9 38.9 13.9 16.7 16.7