Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#245
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 16.4% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.4
.500 or above 76.8% 82.2% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 77.8% 61.3%
Conference Champion 16.2% 18.3% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.0% 4.9%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round14.2% 16.0% 7.8%
Second Round3.8% 4.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-71 78%    
  Nov 10, 2024 103   UC Irvine W 71-70 56%    
  Nov 14, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. L 68-72 36%    
  Nov 19, 2024 294   Western Illinois W 72-59 88%    
  Nov 28, 2024 86   North Texas L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 04, 2024 203   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-69 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 306   Northern Illinois W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 13, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 77-63 88%    
  Dec 16, 2024 190   Montana W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 21, 2024 91   Washington St. L 65-68 41%    
  Dec 29, 2024 140   Southern Illinois W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 01, 2025 144   Belmont W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 136   Murray St. W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 228   Evansville W 75-65 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 21, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 73-64 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 106   @ Drake L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 02, 2025 92   Bradley W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 132   Indiana St. W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 16, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 106   Drake W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 4.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.3 16.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 4.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.7 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.5 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.3 10.6 10.5 9.7 8.5 6.8 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 95.4% 2.5    2.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 84.2% 3.9    3.1 0.8 0.0
16-4 61.2% 4.1    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.2% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.2% 16.2 10.8 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 90.3% 62.7% 27.6% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.0%
19-1 1.2% 77.8% 49.2% 28.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 56.2%
18-2 2.6% 58.2% 44.0% 14.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 25.3%
17-3 4.7% 42.8% 36.5% 6.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 9.9%
16-4 6.8% 33.4% 31.8% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.5 2.2%
15-5 8.5% 24.7% 24.2% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.4 0.7%
14-6 9.7% 18.5% 18.4% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 0.1%
13-7 10.5% 13.0% 13.0% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.1
12-8 10.6% 9.8% 9.8% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.6
11-9 10.3% 5.5% 5.5% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-10 9.0% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
9-11 7.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-12 6.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-13 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 13.2% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.7 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 85.5 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 5.0 5.0 38.0 16.5 20.7 6.6 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 14.3 28.6 28.6 14.3 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 75.0% 5.0 25.0 25.0 25.0