Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#105
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 10.2% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 17.8% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.4% 47.6% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% 44.4% 11.8%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.8
.500 or above 84.4% 84.6% 49.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 68.1% 34.9%
Conference Champion 7.2% 7.2% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.6% 8.0%
First Four5.7% 5.8% 2.0%
First Round44.7% 45.0% 12.0%
Second Round28.5% 28.6% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen12.8% 12.8% 2.1%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.0% 0.7%
Final Four2.6% 2.6% 0.4%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-67 99%    
  Nov 10, 2024 318   Binghamton W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 17, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 85-53 99.8%   
  Nov 21, 2024 106   Drake W 77-70 73%    
  Nov 30, 2024 280   Charleston Southern W 83-63 96%    
  Dec 03, 2024 15   Arkansas W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 07, 2024 43   Clemson W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 10, 2024 14   Tennessee L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 15, 2024 303   Presbyterian W 84-63 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 270   Mount St. Mary's W 84-65 95%    
  Jan 01, 2025 114   @ Boston College W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 74   @ Virginia Tech W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 07, 2025 83   Florida St. W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 41   Wake Forest W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 14, 2025 4   @ Duke L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 78   SMU W 78-71 71%    
  Jan 22, 2025 93   @ Stanford W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 109   @ California W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 57   Virginia W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 66   Notre Dame W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 10, 2025 50   @ Louisville L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 56   Syracuse W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ Florida St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 74   Virginia Tech W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 4   Duke L 71-75 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 74-82 24%    
  Mar 04, 2025 80   @ Georgia Tech W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 49   North Carolina St. W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.4 0.4 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.4 8.7 10.0 10.7 10.4 10.3 8.8 7.1 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.5% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 89.7% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
17-3 61.8% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.7% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 99.9% 22.5% 77.4% 3.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 4.9% 99.7% 19.9% 79.8% 4.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 7.1% 97.6% 14.9% 82.7% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.2%
14-6 8.8% 93.0% 9.1% 83.9% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 92.3%
13-7 10.3% 80.7% 5.3% 75.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.1 2.0 79.6%
12-8 10.4% 61.6% 3.6% 58.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.2 4.0 60.2%
11-9 10.7% 39.6% 2.0% 37.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 38.4%
10-10 10.0% 21.0% 0.9% 20.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.9 20.3%
9-11 8.7% 6.4% 0.3% 6.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 6.1%
8-12 7.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.9%
7-13 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.2%
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.4% 5.8% 41.6% 7.3 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.2 0.9 0.0 52.6 44.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.3 28.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 68.8 31.3