Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#161
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.5#269
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 10.0% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 43.6% 54.3% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.7% 59.7% 42.3%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.3% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 7.2% 14.1%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round7.7% 9.7% 4.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 47 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 276   @ Utah Tech W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 14, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-66 71%    
  Nov 20, 2024 59   @ Dayton L 60-72 14%    
  Nov 23, 2024 95   @ UNLV L 63-72 22%    
  Nov 29, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 04, 2024 184   Abilene Christian W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 07, 2024 70   @ New Mexico L 69-80 17%    
  Dec 12, 2024 17   @ Texas L 61-77 9%    
  Dec 16, 2024 218   Southern Utah W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 02, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 152   @ UTEP L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 23, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 30, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   UTEP W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 13, 2025 110   Liberty L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 275   Florida International W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 20, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 68-63 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-70 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-72 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 6.2 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.7 8.8 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.3% 1.3    1.1 0.1
15-3 85.4% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 59.3% 2.4    1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.2% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 78.1% 57.3% 20.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.8%
17-1 0.4% 65.8% 54.1% 11.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 25.6%
16-2 1.3% 48.5% 41.8% 6.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 11.6%
15-3 2.6% 35.1% 31.6% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 5.1%
14-4 4.1% 25.6% 24.9% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.0%
13-5 5.9% 19.9% 19.7% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.7 0.2%
12-6 7.6% 13.7% 13.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-7 9.2% 10.2% 10.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.2
10-8 10.5% 6.7% 6.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.8
9-9 11.0% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.5
8-10 10.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
7-11 10.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.7
5-13 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.7
4-14 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.9% 7.6% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 92.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%