Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#69
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#133
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 6.5% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.0% 49.2% 33.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 6.1% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 12.1
.500 or above 96.7% 97.4% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 96.2% 89.4%
Conference Champion 58.5% 59.8% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.6%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round47.4% 48.5% 33.0%
Second Round18.0% 18.8% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 7.0% 2.3%
Elite Eight2.3% 2.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 6
Quad 413 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-62 93%    
  Nov 09, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 84-76 77%    
  Nov 14, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 74-73 52%    
  Nov 20, 2024 191   UC Davis W 76-64 87%    
  Nov 22, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 79-63 91%    
  Nov 26, 2024 93   Stanford W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 03, 2024 192   Hawaii W 76-63 87%    
  Dec 14, 2024 61   Georgia L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 16, 2024 108   @ Louisiana Tech W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 19, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 22, 2024 94   Saint Louis W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 28, 2024 282   San Diego W 82-68 88%    
  Dec 30, 2024 169   Bryant W 84-72 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 82-68 88%    
  Jan 09, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 16, 2025 184   Abilene Christian W 79-67 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 221   Tarleton St. W 78-64 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech W 81-70 81%    
  Jan 30, 2025 127   Seattle W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 151   Utah Valley W 76-65 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ California Baptist W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 221   @ Tarleton St. W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 163   California Baptist W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 81-71 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 127   @ Seattle W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 84-67 92%    
  Mar 08, 2025 184   @ Abilene Christian W 76-70 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.3 13.2 15.4 13.3 6.6 58.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.0 6.5 3.2 0.7 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.2 11.1 14.4 16.4 16.2 13.3 6.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.6    6.6
15-1 100.0% 13.3    13.0 0.3
14-2 95.5% 15.4    13.7 1.8 0.0
13-3 80.1% 13.2    9.4 3.5 0.2
12-4 50.6% 7.3    3.4 3.2 0.7 0.0
11-5 20.7% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 58.5% 58.5 46.8 9.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.6% 90.7% 77.8% 12.9% 6.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 58.1%
15-1 13.3% 78.0% 68.9% 9.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.9 29.1%
14-2 16.2% 65.0% 60.7% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 3.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.7 11.1%
13-3 16.4% 52.2% 50.5% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.9 3.3%
12-4 14.4% 41.8% 41.4% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 8.4 0.6%
11-5 11.1% 30.6% 30.5% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.1%
10-6 8.2% 21.8% 21.7% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.4 0.1%
9-7 5.8% 15.1% 15.1% 13.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-8 3.7% 7.6% 7.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-9 2.1% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-10 1.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 48.0% 44.9% 3.1% 10.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.9 9.6 15.0 7.2 2.1 0.5 0.1 52.0 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 2.8 22.4 23.3 21.2 20.7 7.7 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 93.9% 4.6 4.5 6.5 10.6 26.4 18.7 15.9 5.7 2.0 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 94.1% 5.5 14.7 13.5 18.2 24.1 14.7 2.9 2.9 2.9