Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#191
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#211
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 16.5% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 53.2% 77.6% 50.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 80.1% 63.1%
Conference Champion 10.2% 18.9% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.3% 4.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round8.9% 16.4% 7.9%
Second Round1.0% 2.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 62   @ Washington L 67-80 11%    
  Nov 07, 2024 279   @ Idaho W 67-66 56%    
  Nov 17, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 66-76 17%    
  Nov 20, 2024 69   @ Grand Canyon L 64-76 13%    
  Nov 25, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 71-65 70%    
  Nov 30, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 05, 2024 345   Cal Poly W 72-58 88%    
  Dec 07, 2024 167   UC Santa Barbara W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 14, 2024 300   @ Sacramento St. W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 18, 2024 279   Idaho W 70-63 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 02, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 09, 2025 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 245   Long Beach St. W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 345   @ Cal Poly W 69-61 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 23, 2025 192   Hawaii W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 183   @ UC Riverside L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 103   @ UC Irvine L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ Long Beach St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 183   UC Riverside W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 162   @ UC San Diego L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   Cal St. Northridge W 76-70 68%    
  Mar 02, 2025 192   @ Hawaii L 65-68 41%    
  Mar 06, 2025 103   UC Irvine L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   UC San Diego W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 10.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.8 4.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.3 8.0 9.4 10.3 10.6 10.2 9.4 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 80.4% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
16-4 57.2% 2.7    1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.6% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 6.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.6% 55.3% 11.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.2%
19-1 0.6% 53.3% 50.5% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5.7%
18-2 1.6% 44.8% 43.5% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.2%
17-3 3.0% 39.3% 39.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.1%
16-4 4.7% 31.6% 31.6% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2
15-5 6.5% 23.8% 23.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0
14-6 8.0% 17.5% 17.5% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 6.6
13-7 9.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.4
12-8 10.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.6
11-9 10.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.3
10-10 10.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
9-11 9.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-12 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-13 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 4.7% 4.7
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.7 1.7 0.6 91.0 0.1%