Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#300
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.0#339
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#314
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#250
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.6% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 25.0% 42.2% 18.2%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 45.8% 28.4%
Conference Champion 3.7% 6.3% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 13.9% 25.2%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round3.0% 5.1% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 9
Quad 410 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 250   @ Fresno St. L 61-67 29%    
  Nov 12, 2024 162   @ UC San Diego L 60-70 17%    
  Nov 16, 2024 239   Cal St. Northridge L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 24, 2024 109   @ California L 60-74 11%    
  Nov 27, 2024 229   @ Air Force L 58-65 28%    
  Nov 30, 2024 362   Mercyhurst W 72-58 89%    
  Dec 04, 2024 317   @ Denver L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 191   UC Davis L 63-66 40%    
  Dec 17, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 57-70 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Portland St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 279   Idaho W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 262   Eastern Washington W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Northern Colorado L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 23, 2025 315   Idaho St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   Weber St. L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 149   @ Montana St. L 62-73 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 190   @ Montana L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 262   @ Eastern Washington L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Idaho L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 13, 2025 226   Northern Colorado L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 179   @ Weber St. L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 315   @ Idaho St. L 61-63 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 190   Montana L 65-68 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   Montana St. L 65-70 35%    
  Mar 03, 2025 257   @ Portland St. L 65-70 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.6 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.7 2.1 3.7 4.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.1 10th
Total 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.7 8.7 10.6 11.5 11.4 10.7 9.5 7.7 5.8 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.4% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 81.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 62.8% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.6% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 60.0% 60.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 37.0% 37.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 31.3% 31.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.0% 22.3% 22.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.7% 23.1% 23.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-5 2.9% 17.1% 17.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
12-6 4.4% 12.6% 12.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.8
11-7 5.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.3
10-8 7.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.3
9-9 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.1
8-10 10.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 11.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
6-12 11.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.4
5-13 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.5
4-14 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-15 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
1-17 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%