Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 Montana St. 24.8%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +0.8      +0.6 153 +0.2 164 70.5 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
179 Weber St. 18.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -0.7      0.0 165 -0.7 191 64.4 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Montana 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.1      +1.0 144 -2.1 244 65.5 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Northern Colorado 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -3.2      0.0 166 -3.2 281 73.1 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Portland St. 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -4.8      -3.5 281 -1.3 219 72.2 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Eastern Washington 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -4.9      -0.9 201 -4.1 316 74.6 45 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Idaho 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.6      -2.8 266 -2.8 269 63.3 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 Northern Arizona 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -6.0      -2.1 246 -4.0 314 69.9 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 Sacramento St. 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -7.1      -4.9 314 -2.2 250 62.0 339 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Idaho St. 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 6 - 12 -8.3      -4.8 313 -3.5 291 61.5 345 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 3.0 33.4 20.1 13.7 10.3 7.4 5.6 4.0 2.8 1.7 0.9
Weber St. 3.6 23.9 18.5 14.5 11.7 9.3 7.3 5.7 4.1 3.1 1.8
Montana 3.8 21.3 17.6 14.5 12.1 9.8 7.9 6.4 4.9 3.6 2.0
Northern Colorado 4.8 11.9 12.7 12.8 12.4 11.6 10.4 9.3 8.1 6.4 4.3
Portland St. 5.5 7.5 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.5 9.3 7.7
Eastern Washington 5.6 6.9 8.9 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.5 10.8 9.9 7.7
Idaho 5.9 5.6 7.5 9.2 10.2 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.3 9.7
Northern Arizona 6.1 5.1 6.8 8.2 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.2 12.4 11.1
Sacramento St. 6.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 8.2 9.8 10.9 12.4 13.7 14.4 15.1
Idaho St. 7.1 2.4 3.6 5.1 6.8 8.5 9.9 11.6 14.2 17.1 20.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.3 8.8 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.0 10.1 7.4 4.1 1.4
Weber St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.2 7.1 8.9 10.3 11.2 11.8 11.5 9.4 7.2 5.0 2.6 0.8
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 6.0 7.7 9.3 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.8 8.8 6.6 4.4 2.0 0.6
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.1 6.9 8.7 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.8 9.3 7.4 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2
Portland St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.3 9.1 10.4 10.9 11.1 10.2 9.0 7.3 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.5 7.5 9.4 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.0 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Idaho 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.6 8.8 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.7 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.4 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.0 10.5 9.0 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.7 8.7 10.6 11.5 11.4 10.7 9.5 7.7 5.8 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 6 - 12 1.1 3.2 6.2 8.7 10.7 11.8 11.7 10.7 9.8 8.3 6.3 4.6 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 33.4% 24.3 7.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 23.9% 16.6 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 21.3% 14.7 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 11.9% 7.6 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 7.5% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 6.9% 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 5.6% 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 5.1% 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 3.7% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 2.4% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 24.8% 24.8% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.4 6.2 5.2 4.0 75.2 0.1%
Weber St. 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 4.5 4.5 3.7 81.8 0.0%
Montana 17.1% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.1 4.6 3.9 82.9 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.1 2.8 89.9 0.0%
Portland St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.4 93.1 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.6 93.5 0.0%
Idaho 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 94.5 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 95.1 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 96.5 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 97.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 24.8% 2.0% 23.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 18.2% 1.8% 17.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 17.1% 2.0% 16.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.1% 1.6% 9.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.9% 1.3% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.5% 1.7% 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 5.5% 1.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.9% 1.2% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.5% 1.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.6% 1.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.7% 0.9 7.3 92.6 0.1
2nd Round 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0