IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#278
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.0	#326
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#311

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.9	#196

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	4.9%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.9	14.5

.500 or above	27.2%	52.4%	23.7%
.500 or above in Conference	32.2%	50.1%	29.8%
Conference Champion	2.1%	5.2%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	14.8%	6.7%	15.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	2.2%	4.9%	1.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 8	3 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 8	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	109	@ California	L	61-73	12%
Nov 11, 2024	234	North Dakota St.	W	66-65	53%
Nov 16, 2024	250	Fresno St.	W	64-62	56%
Nov 22, 2024	206	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	60-66	29%
Nov 23, 2024	275	Florida International	L	69-70	50%
Nov 24, 2024	220	Northeastern	L	63-66	41%
Nov 30, 2024	218	@ Southern Utah	L	66-72	31%
Dec 05, 2024	103	@ UC Irvine	L	60-74	12%
Dec 07, 2024	162	@ UC San Diego	L	61-70	23%
Dec 18, 2024	271	@ Portland	L	67-70	39%
Dec 21, 2024	257	Portland St.	W	68-66	58%
Dec 23, 2024	234	@ North Dakota St.	L	63-68	34%
Jan 02, 2025	191	UC Davis	L	64-65	45%
Jan 04, 2025	245	Long Beach St.	W	71-70	55%
Jan 09, 2025	167	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	63-71	24%
Jan 11, 2025	239	Cal St. Northridge	W	71-70	54%
Jan 19, 2025	192	@ Hawaii	L	60-67	28%
Jan 23, 2025	244	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	61-66	35%
Jan 25, 2025	183	UC Riverside	L	65-67	45%
Jan 30, 2025	345	Cal Poly	W	68-59	78%
Feb 01, 2025	239	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	68-73	35%
Feb 06, 2025	167	UC Santa Barbara	L	66-68	42%
Feb 08, 2025	183	@ UC Riverside	L	62-70	26%
Feb 13, 2025	162	UC San Diego	L	64-67	41%
Feb 15, 2025	244	Cal St. Fullerton	W	64-63	55%
Feb 20, 2025	191	@ UC Davis	L	61-68	27%
Feb 22, 2025	103	UC Irvine	L	63-71	27%
Feb 27, 2025	245	@ Long Beach St.	L	68-73	35%
Mar 01, 2025	345	@ Cal Poly	W	65-62	60%
Mar 06, 2025	192	Hawaii	L	63-64	47%
Projected Record						12 - 18	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0				4.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.0						5.3	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	2.4	2.6	1.0	0.1	0.0							7.0	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.1	3.2	1.0	0.1	0.0								8.5	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	3.7	3.6	1.1	0.1	0.0									9.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.5	4.0	4.1	1.3	0.1	0.0										11.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	1.9	4.6	4.2	1.4	0.1	0.0											12.6	8th
9th				0.1	1.0	3.2	5.1	3.8	1.1	0.1													14.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.6	2.3	4.3	4.6	2.7	0.7	0.0	0.0													15.4	10th
11th	0.4	1.2	2.4	2.7	1.9	0.9	0.2	0.0															9.7	11th

Total	0.4	1.3	3.0	5.1	7.2	9.1	10.1	10.8	10.6	10.2	8.9	7.4	5.5	4.2	2.8	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	91.8%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	84.4%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
16-4	60.2%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	32.4%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	10.6%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1		1.2	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.0%		37.9%	36.8%	1.1%	11.7									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		1.7%
18-2	0.2%		33.6%	33.3%	0.3%	12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		0.4%
17-3	0.4%		31.8%	31.8%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3
16-4	0.9%		26.7%	26.7%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.7
15-5	1.8%		19.3%	19.3%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.4
14-6	2.8%		14.4%	14.4%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.4
13-7	4.2%		9.0%	9.0%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	3.8
12-8	5.5%		4.6%	4.6%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	5.3
11-9	7.4%		2.3%	2.3%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	7.2
10-10	8.9%		1.1%	1.1%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8
9-11	10.2%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.2
8-12	10.6%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	10.6
7-13	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-14	10.1%																							10.1
5-15	9.1%																							9.1
4-16	7.2%																							7.2
3-17	5.1%																							5.1
2-18	3.0%																							3.0
1-19	1.3%																							1.3
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	14.3									0.0			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.4	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%