Preseason Rankings
Big West
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
103 UC Irvine 35.8%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 15 - 5 +5.1      +2.1 117 +3.1 89 70.2 124 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 UC San Diego 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +0.1      +1.3 134 -1.1 207 64.2 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 UC Santa Barbara 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 -0.1      +1.2 135 -1.3 217 68.0 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 UC Riverside 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -0.8      -0.2 175 -0.6 185 66.9 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 UC Davis 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -1.2      -2.5 256 +1.3 133 67.5 211 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Hawaii 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 9 -1.4      -1.8 236 +0.4 153 65.3 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Cal St. Northridge 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -3.8      -2.7 262 -1.1 204 79.6 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Cal St. Fullerton 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 11 -4.0      -3.9 295 -0.1 171 66.0 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Long Beach St. 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 11 -4.0      -1.6 227 -2.4 257 77.0 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -5.5      -4.7 311 -0.9 196 63.0 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 Cal Poly 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 25 4 - 16 -11.8      -8.0 355 -3.8 303 65.4 271 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.4 47.3 19.7 11.6 7.6 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
UC San Diego 4.4 14.1 15.5 14.2 12.5 10.9 9.2 7.8 6.3 5.0 3.2 1.3
UC Santa Barbara 4.5 13.8 15.1 13.9 12.4 11.0 9.4 8.1 6.4 5.2 3.4 1.3
UC Riverside 4.9 10.9 13.0 13.2 12.0 11.7 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.4 4.3 1.8
UC Davis 5.0 10.2 12.1 12.4 12.0 11.4 10.6 9.4 8.3 6.8 4.7 2.1
Hawaii 5.2 9.1 11.7 12.0 11.6 11.4 10.6 9.8 8.7 7.4 5.4 2.4
Cal St. Northridge 6.4 4.2 6.5 8.0 9.2 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.0 11.3 10.4 5.6
Cal St. Fullerton 6.5 3.9 6.1 7.7 8.8 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.1 12.2 10.5 5.9
Long Beach St. 6.5 3.7 6.2 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.1 10.9 6.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.2 2.1 4.1 5.3 7.0 8.5 9.8 11.2 12.6 14.4 15.4 9.7
Cal Poly 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.8 4.6 6.9 11.7 21.6 48.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.2 6.8 9.0 10.8 12.2 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.1 2.9
UC San Diego 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.4 7.9 9.4 10.4 10.7 10.9 9.5 8.1 6.2 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.4 7.9 9.5 10.4 10.9 10.4 9.4 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.3
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.7 9.0 10.0 10.7 10.3 9.9 8.6 6.9 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.3 8.0 9.4 10.3 10.6 10.2 9.4 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2
Hawaii 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.1 7.9 6.1 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.0 9.6 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.2 7.9 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.8 6.9 8.2 10.0 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.1 7.5 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.1 8.7 7.5 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.2 9.1 10.1 10.8 10.6 10.2 8.9 7.4 5.5 4.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 4 - 16 5.4 10.6 14.2 15.3 13.7 11.8 9.1 6.7 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 47.3% 37.2 8.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 14.1% 9.3 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 13.8% 9.2 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 10.9% 7.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 10.2% 6.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 9.1% 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 3.9% 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 3.7% 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.1% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 35.8% 35.2% 0.6% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 3.8 10.3 9.8 6.0 2.5 0.6 64.2 0.9%
UC San Diego 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.3 3.3 2.2 0.7 88.1 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 12.0% 12.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.3 3.4 2.1 0.6 88.0 0.1%
UC Riverside 9.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.0 0.7 90.3 0.0%
UC Davis 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.7 1.7 0.6 91.0 0.1%
Hawaii 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.4 1.6 0.5 91.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 95.8 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.5 96.1 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 96.3 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 97.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 35.8% 0.6% 35.5% 8.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
UC San Diego 11.9% 0.3% 11.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 12.0% 0.2% 11.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 9.7% 0.3% 9.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 9.0% 0.3% 8.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 8.3% 0.2% 8.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 3.9% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.7% 0.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 98.4 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 16.3% 0.2 83.7 16.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0