Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#94
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#80
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.3% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.0% 4.7% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 23.0% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.9% 11.9% 4.0%
Average Seed 9.3 9.0 10.0
.500 or above 75.7% 85.8% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 75.0% 59.5%
Conference Champion 11.8% 15.5% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.0% 4.9%
First Four2.5% 3.3% 1.6%
First Round15.8% 21.3% 10.1%
Second Round7.2% 10.4% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Neutral) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 37 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 98   Santa Clara W 79-78 51%    
  Nov 16, 2024 141   Loyola Marymount W 78-70 77%    
  Nov 22, 2024 105   Wichita St. W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 25, 2024 212   Quinnipiac W 86-74 85%    
  Nov 27, 2024 143   Umass Lowell W 83-75 76%    
  Dec 02, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 85-67 94%    
  Dec 05, 2024 82   @ San Francisco L 73-77 36%    
  Dec 08, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 15, 2024 193   @ Illinois St. W 73-68 65%    
  Dec 18, 2024 153   Wofford W 80-71 77%    
  Dec 22, 2024 69   @ Grand Canyon L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 31, 2024 159   @ Fordham W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 03, 2025 90   Saint Joseph's W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 120   St. Bonaventure W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 14, 2025 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 133   @ Richmond W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 173   La Salle W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ George Washington W 83-80 58%    
  Jan 28, 2025 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 31, 2025 59   Dayton L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 116   @ Massachusetts W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 07, 2025 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 11, 2025 96   George Mason W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 142   Rhode Island W 82-74 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 135   @ Davidson W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 100   Loyola Chicago W 78-74 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 69-75 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 128   Duquesne W 76-69 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.5 2.5 1.3 0.3 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.5 11.5 11.0 10.3 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.3    1.2 0.0 0.0
16-2 94.3% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.1% 3.5    2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.2% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.4% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 7.2 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 98.2% 65.3% 32.8% 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
17-1 1.3% 95.7% 47.6% 48.1% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.9%
16-2 2.7% 86.3% 39.3% 47.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 77.4%
15-3 4.6% 70.7% 33.2% 37.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 56.2%
14-4 6.6% 48.4% 23.9% 24.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 32.3%
13-5 8.6% 30.9% 18.6% 12.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.0 15.1%
12-6 10.3% 17.9% 13.0% 4.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 8.5 5.6%
11-7 11.0% 9.6% 7.9% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.8%
10-8 11.5% 5.8% 5.3% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.5%
9-9 10.5% 3.1% 2.9% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.2%
8-10 9.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0%
7-11 7.9% 0.7% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 5.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 9.9% 7.1% 9.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.3 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.9 7.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 54.2 22.9 19.1 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 25.0 25.0 50.0